Sale #1

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31211;5;u201

https://backpack.tf/item/10765268045

mp.tf sale on 9/07/25

$199.99 / $1.80 = 111.1

Rounding to 111

Sale #2

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31211;5;u201

https://backpack.tf/item/12034985371

mp.tf sale on 9/30/25

$199.99 / $1.90 = 105.3

Rounding to 105

Sale #3

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31211;5;u201

https://backpack.tf/item/10941900315

mp.tf sale on 10/07/25

$208.00 / $1.90 = 109.5

Rounding to 110

Sale #4

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31211;5;u201

https://backpack.tf/item/10761959928

mp.tf sale on 10/18/25

$249.99 / $1.88 = ~133.0

Rounding to 133

Sale #5

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31211;5;u201

mp.tf sale on 11/06/25

$229.99 / $1.85 = 124.3

Rounding to 124

Sale #6

https://backpack.tf/item/15960496967

Gambled?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198357098924#!/compare/1760227200/1760400000

Sale #7

https://backpack.tf/item/15960496967

84 keys? (histories don't match)

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198150768338#!/compare/1761004800/1761091200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198802109924#!/compare/1760745600/1761091200

Sale #8

https://backpack.tf/item/15960496967

?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198802109924#!/compare/1761091200/1761177600

Sale #9

https://backpack.tf/item/15853479227

100 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198126477668#!/compare/1756684800/1756944000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198069980430#!/compare/1756857600/1756944000

Histories match

Sale #10

https://backpack.tf/item/15853479227

Unknown bulk for a Severed Serration Towering Patch of Pumpkins

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198069980430#!/compare/1757030400/1757116800

Better used there anyways

Sale #11

https://backpack.tf/item/15853479227

100 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198125791160#!/compare/1757894400/1757980800 (ID: 16174154885)

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198272622789#!/compare/1757808000/1757980800

Sale #12

https://backpack.tf/item/15475359734

Unknown from stn

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198067019877#!/compare/1757635200/1757721600

Sale #13

https://backpack.tf/item/15475359734

?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198067019877#!/compare/1757721600/1759795200

Sale #14

https://backpack.tf/item/15475359734

?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198150747376#!/compare/1758412800/1758499200

Sale #15

https://backpack.tf/item/15475359734

Bulk for a Searing Plasma Rack

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198252999692#!/compare/1758499200/1758585600

Use there

Sale #16

https://backpack.tf/item/15475359734

Sold with a Sakura Smoke Bomb Airdog (active suggestion at 19) + Blizzardy Storm Backbiter's Billycock (active suggestion at 21) for a Global Clusters Brothers in Blues + Hot Pro KS Simple Spirits Rescue Ranger (WW) (active suggestion at 23)

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198252999692#!/compare/1759104000/1759190400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198316624014#!/compare/1759104000/1759190400

Using there

Sale #17

https://backpack.tf/item/14049711904

22 keys traced

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198078666051#!/compare/1757721600/1757894400

Sale #18

https://backpack.tf/item/14049711904

100 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198115074140#!/compare/1757894400/1757980800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197982127154#!/compare/1757894400/1757980800

Sale #19

https://backpack.tf/item/12127655380

66 keys + black painted max's head (in date at 28)

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199198582668#!/compare/1757289600/1757376000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198075325715#!/compare/1755993600/1757808000

66 + 28 = 94

94

Sale #20

https://backpack.tf/item/12034985371

Sold with a Strange Festivized Professional Killstreak Sweet Dreams Grenade Launcher (Field-Tested) (FH + VV) + Strange Captain Cardbeard Cutthroat for a Strange Spectral Spectrum Villain's Veil + Strange Violent Violet Footprints Outback Intellectual

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198063855523#!/compare/1755907200/1758067200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198244962432#!/compare/1757894400/1757980800

Certainly missing info here

Sale #21

https://backpack.tf/item/10882265661

Bulk dump?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199176959513#!/compare/1759449600/1759708800

Sale #22

https://backpack.tf/item/10882265661

92 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199176959513#!/compare/1759795200/1759968000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198339104273#!/compare/1759536000/1760054400

Sale #23

https://backpack.tf/item/10882265661

97 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198339104273#!/compare/1763683200/1763769600 (ID: 16425942502)

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198105766081#!/compare/1763596800/1763769600

Sale #24

https://backpack.tf/item/10828432607

Cashout

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198054159742#!/compare/1759708800/1759795200

Sale #25

https://backpack.tf/item/10828432607

98 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198059382847#!/compare/1759968000/1760054400 (ID: 16267424509)

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198105074324#!/compare/1760054400/1760140800

Sale #26

https://backpack.tf/item/10775458248

?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199088594463#!/compare/1760745600/1761004800

Sale #27

https://backpack.tf/item/10775458248

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198308371114#!/compare/1762300800/1762560000

Sale #28

https://backpack.tf/item/10770885083

95 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198121258526#!/compare/1762992000/1763164800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198407556030#!/compare/1763078400/1763424000

Sale #29

https://backpack.tf/item/10770885083

?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198407556030#!/compare/1763424000/1764547200

Sale #30

https://backpack.tf/item/10770885083

Bulk dump

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199389549498#!/compare/1764201600/1764288000

Sale #31

https://backpack.tf/item/10770885083

Sold for a Mystery to Everyone Neptune's Nightmare + 30 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198106511423#!/compare/1764288000/1764460800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199088594463#!/compare/1764288000/1764374400

No usable mini

Use there

Sale #32

https://backpack.tf/item/10744561549

104 keys (histories don't match)

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198049404838#!/compare/1762300800/1762819200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198064374638#!/compare/1762128000/1762992000

Sale #33

https://backpack.tf/item/16354523573

88 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198434701820#!/compare/1761782400/1761868800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199110917829#!/compare/1761696000/1761782400

Confirmed by gladiator.tf: https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Pumpkin%20Moon%20Twisted%20Topper&at=2025-12-02T19:05:07.091Z

Sale #34

https://backpack.tf/item/16354523573

?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199110917829#!/compare/1762214400/1762300800

Sale #35

https://backpack.tf/item/16333691011

87 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198180523995#!/compare/1759881600/1760054400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199136027462#!/compare/1759449600/1760054400

Sale #36

https://backpack.tf/item/16333691011

Sold for a Cloud 9 Antarctic Eyewear (no usable mini, buyers at 33) + 50 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199136027462#!/compare/1761177600/1761350400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198079727972#!/compare/1761350400/1761523200

Confirmed by gladiator.tf: https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Pumpkin%20Moon%20Twisted%20Topper&at=2025-12-02T19:05:07.091Z

50 + 33 = 83

83

Sale #37

https://backpack.tf/item/16333691011

Bulk dump

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199203332862#!/compare/1761350400/1761436800

Sale #38

https://backpack.tf/item/16333691011

?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198882886230#!/compare/1761436800/1761523200

Sale #39

https://backpack.tf/item/16333691011

157 keys for the topper + Terror-Watt Bonk Leadwear (no mini, buyers at 10) + Flavorsome Sunset Snack Stack (active suggestion at 12) + Searing Plasma Bonk Leadwear (active suggestion at 12) + Cloud 9 Mann-O-War (mini at 13)+ Circling Peace Sign A Head Full of Hot Air (no mini, buyers at 8.62) + Disco Beat Down Bulb Bonnet (mini at 10)

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1762214400/1762300800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198319114954#!/compare/1762300800/1762473600

157 - 10 - 12 - 12 - 13 - 8.62 - 10 = 91.38

Rounding to 91

-----

Cloud 9 Mann-o-War mini

https://backpack.tf/item/9085142084

13 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198060189392#!/compare/1760659200/1760832000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1760659200/1760745600

-----

-----

Disco Beat Down Bulb Bonnet

https://backpack.tf/item/12657793119

10 keys 18.11 ref

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199030207826#!/compare/1758067200/1758153600 (ID: 16181648004)

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1758067200/1758153600

Rounding to 10

-----

Glad.tf sales

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Pumpkin%20Moon%20Twisted%20Topper&at=2025-12-02T19:05:07.091Z

89 keys

88 keys (3x)

86 keys

Current sellers:

$249.99 on mp.tf

$286.97 on SCM

$303.78 on SCM

$313.43 on SCM

$1382.53 on SCM

99 keys on bp.tf

100 keys on bp.tf

120 keys on bp.tf (2x)

200 keys on bp.tf

Sales: 111, 105, 110, 133, 124, 84, 100, 100, 22, 100, 94, 92, 97, 98, 95, 104, 88, 87, 83, 91, 86

3+ Buy orders at 92 currently. Going to take 105 which is marginally above the current lowers sellers, and will also take 91 which is marginally below the current buyers (but above all non-human buyers). This will give a more accurate range that accounts for price fluctuation with time.

Final price: 91 - 105