Sale #1

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31459;5;u346

Marketplace.tf sale on 4/11/25

$27.00 / $1.92 (median value at the time) = 14.1

Rounding to 14

Sale #2

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31459;5;u346

Marketplace.tf sale on 5/31/25

$29.99 / $1.94 (median value at the time) = 15.5

Rounding to 16

Sale #3

https://backpack.tf/item/15479951928

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198297897008#!/compare/1743033600/1743292800

Sale #4

https://backpack.tf/item/15479951928

18 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850178158#!/compare/1745280000/1745366400 (ID: 15668020658)

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198075279583#!/compare/1745280000/1745366400

Sale #5

https://backpack.tf/item/14712422025

Gambled possibly

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199092052236#!/compare/1742774400/1742860800

Sale #6

https://backpack.tf/item/14712422025

Dumped to buyers, unknown

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198389204821#!/compare/1743206400/1743465600

Sale #7

https://backpack.tf/item/14712422025

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198453530349#!/compare/1744243200/1744329600

Sale #8

https://backpack.tf/item/14702560870

Dumped to bots, keys reused instantly

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198059500150#!/compare/1746489600/1750291200

Sale #9

https://backpack.tf/item/14702560870

11 keys 54.66 ref

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198349848918#!/compare/1747785600/1747958400 (ID: 15764974044)

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199853690889#!/compare/1747872000/1747958400

Rounding to 12

Sale #10

https://backpack.tf/item/14702560870

Gambled probably

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199506957704#!/compare/1709596800/1748131200

Sale #11

https://backpack.tf/item/14702560870

Dumped to bots

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199506957704#!/compare/1748131200/1748217600

Sale #12

https://backpack.tf/item/14689063369

Sold for a Miami Nights Janissary Ketche + 3 keys 5 ref

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198169209514#!/compare/1744329600/1744416000 (ID: 15628981552)

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199569633180#!/compare/1744070400/1744329600

Probably better used to price the Ketche since we have a bunch of pure sales

Sale #13

https://backpack.tf/item/14689063369

Dumped to scrap, untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199569633180#!/compare/1744416000/1744588800

Current sellers:

$29.99 on mp.tf (2x)

$30.00 on mannco.store (2x)

$36.71 on SCM

$36.36 on SCM

$57.50 on SCM

$88.55 on SCM

17.52 keys on bp.tf

20 keys on bp.tf

Sales: 14, 16, 18, 12

12 was someone quickly dumping to buy orders. Gonna call 18 a high outlier since there are cheaper sellers and sales, also numerous untraceable dumps to bots (probably between 10-12 keys) further indicates this might just be too high.

Final price: 14 - 16