Sale 1:

Sold to STN for 12 keys + ~1 key in metal

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198062747535#!/compare/1748131200/1748217600 - Near ID: 15774810005

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1748217600/1748304000

https://backpack.tf/item/15485799964

= 13 keys

Sale 2:

Sold to a bot for 12 keys + negligible metal

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199394480307#!/compare/1753228800/1753315200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199206009808#!/compare/1753228800/1753315200

https://backpack.tf/item/14184552054

= 12 keys

Sale 3:

Sold for 12 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199084784906#!/compare/1754265600/1754352000 - Near ID: 16011064707

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198093829935#!/compare/1754265600/1754352000

https://backpack.tf/item/15939586112

= 12 keys

Sale 4:

Sold to a bot for 11 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198060071234#!/compare/1748217600/1748304000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199389372563#!/compare/1748217600/1748304000

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Radiant%20Rivalry%20Covert%20Covers&at=2025-08-12T15:02:30.896Z - confirmed

https://backpack.tf/item/14624461328

= 11 keys

Sale 5:

Sold to STN for 11 keys + negligible metal

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198067866328#!/compare/1753574400/1753833600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199026390261#!/compare/1753488000/1753574400

https://backpack.tf/item/15485799964

The trade is mixed with another one on the seller’s end, only the last 11 keys + some of the metal matches.

= 11 keys

Other Sales:

#1

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198029652523#!/compare/1753315200/1753574400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199026390261#!/compare/1753315200/1753401600

https://backpack.tf/item/15616026811

Untraceable, 3 keys + some metal match

#2

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198103405324#!/compare/1748563200/1749427200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198173455463#!/compare/1749427200/1750636800

https://backpack.tf/item/14044783563

Untraceable, likely marketplace sale

#3

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850121720#!/compare/1751587200/1751673600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198377055815#!/compare/1746403200/1752019200

https://backpack.tf/item/13892188539

Untraceable, likely bulk-ish

#4

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1750982400/1751068800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198067866328#!/compare/1750896000/1751068800

https://backpack.tf/item/15485799964

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/item/14334659392 - mannco

https://backpack.tf/item/14243579947 - mannco

https://backpack.tf/item/13899790127 - gambled

Marketplace Sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31428;5;u312

https://backpack.tf/item/15366972477 - July 12th

https://backpack.tf/item/14515545374 - One of the June sales

https://backpack.tf/item/14033811501 - June 30th

https://backpack.tf/item/14010695923 - probably June 25th

$34.99, June 8th

$29.95, June 13th, July 12th & August 3rd

$25.24, June 25th

$25.49, June 30th

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6 - Keys were:

$1.93, June 8th

$1.95, June 13th

$2, June 25th & 30th

$2.02, July 12th

$1.90, August 3rd

34.99/1.94 = 18.036, rounds to 18 keys

29.95/1.95 = 15.359, rounds to 15 keys

29.95/2.02 =14.827, rounds to 15 keys

29.95/1.9 = 15.763, rounds to 16 keys

25.24/2 = 12.62, rounds to 13 keys

25.49/2 = 12.745, rounds to 13 keys

Sellers/Buyers:

https://i.imgur.com/CrN2Dkj.png

https://i.imgur.com/ejo8bFj.png

https://backpack.tf/item/15558905645 - ~11.8 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/13980545649 - ~11.8 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/14184552054 - ~11.8 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/13892688724 - 15 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/14293769126 - ~15.5 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/15939586112 - marketplace

Sales at:

11 (2x)

12 (2x)

13 (3x, 2 marketplace)

15 (2x, marketplace)

16 (marketplace)

18 (marketplace)

Lone buyer at 11 keys doesn’t counter the 2 sellers at 11, and I’m fairly certain the buy order won’t last too long anyway.

With 3 sellers at under 12 keys, it wouldn’t be ideal to stray too far from them. I’ll exclude the sales at 15+, as we have pure sales as high as 13 keys.

Taking 11-13 keys.

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198349848918#!/compare/1754870400/1754956800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198103405324#!/compare/1754611200/1755129600

https://backpack.tf/item/15558905645

12 keys match, was the first ~11.8 key seller I had listed

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198103405324#!/compare/1755820800/1756252800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199004803157#!/compare/1756166400/1756252800

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Radiant%20Rivalry%20Covert%20Covers&at=2025-08-27T10:40:25.151Z - labelled as 12 keys + 14.77 ref

https://backpack.tf/item/15558905645

Follows the 12 key purchase, re-sold for a profit, so not invalid

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199085116273#!/compare/1754611200/1754697600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198081970832#!/compare/1725062400/1755907200

https://backpack.tf/item/14453534438

Bulk-ish on both ends

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198395478117#!/compare/1752105600/1755648000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198439075368#!/compare/1754265600/1755648000

https://backpack.tf/item/14140769513

Untraceable, potentially scammed

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198439075368#!/compare/1754265600/1755648000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199131345389#!/compare/1755561600/1755648000

https://backpack.tf/item/14140769513

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199131345389#!/compare/1755561600/1755648000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199072654974#!/compare/1755561600/1755648000

https://backpack.tf/item/14140769513

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199008005844#!/compare/1755993600/1756252800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199004803157#!/compare/1755993600/1756080000

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Radiant%20Rivalry%20Covert%20Covers&at=2025-08-27T10:40:25.151Z - labelled as 12 keys + 14.66 ref

https://backpack.tf/item/16093874607

Untraceable, follows the July 12th marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/14495782525 - sold to an untraceable buyer

https://backpack.tf/item/13980545649 - untraceable buyer, was the 2nd listing at ~11.8 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/14184552054 - listed on mannco, dunno if by the bot owner or by someone that bought it off them. was the 3rd listing at ~11.8 keys

Updated Sellers/Buyers:

https://i.imgur.com/2WR1XR9.png

https://i.imgur.com/FkXbeDg.png - buyers at ~12.3 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/14443945495 - 14 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/14140769513 - 14 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/13892688724 - 15 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/15939586112 - $29.95

https://backpack.tf/item/14495782525 - $29.95

I still maintain that the marketplace sales at 15+ look like outliers, and one of the two 15 key marketplace sales are now invalid due to re-selling to a bot for less. However, I'm considering dropping 11 from the range, with the buyers now up to ~12.3 keys.