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Sale 1:
Sold to STN for 12 keys + ~1 key in metal
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198062747535#!/compare/1748131200/1748217600 - Near ID: 15774810005
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1748217600/1748304000
https://backpack.tf/item/15485799964
= 13 keys
Sale 2:
Sold to a bot for 12 keys + negligible metal
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199394480307#!/compare/1753228800/1753315200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199206009808#!/compare/1753228800/1753315200
https://backpack.tf/item/14184552054
= 12 keys
Sale 3:
Sold for 12 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199084784906#!/compare/1754265600/1754352000 - Near ID: 16011064707
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198093829935#!/compare/1754265600/1754352000
https://backpack.tf/item/15939586112
= 12 keys
Sale 4:
Sold to a bot for 11 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198060071234#!/compare/1748217600/1748304000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199389372563#!/compare/1748217600/1748304000
https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Radiant%20Rivalry%20Covert%20Covers&at=2025-08-12T15:02:30.896Z - confirmed
https://backpack.tf/item/14624461328
= 11 keys
Sale 5:
Sold to STN for 11 keys + negligible metal
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198067866328#!/compare/1753574400/1753833600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199026390261#!/compare/1753488000/1753574400
https://backpack.tf/item/15485799964
The trade is mixed with another one on the seller’s end, only the last 11 keys + some of the metal matches.
= 11 keys
Other Sales:
#1
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198029652523#!/compare/1753315200/1753574400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199026390261#!/compare/1753315200/1753401600
https://backpack.tf/item/15616026811
Untraceable, 3 keys + some metal match
#2
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198103405324#!/compare/1748563200/1749427200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198173455463#!/compare/1749427200/1750636800
https://backpack.tf/item/14044783563
Untraceable, likely marketplace sale
#3
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850121720#!/compare/1751587200/1751673600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198377055815#!/compare/1746403200/1752019200
https://backpack.tf/item/13892188539
Untraceable, likely bulk-ish
#4
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1750982400/1751068800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198067866328#!/compare/1750896000/1751068800
https://backpack.tf/item/15485799964
Untraceable
https://backpack.tf/item/14334659392 - mannco
https://backpack.tf/item/14243579947 - mannco
https://backpack.tf/item/13899790127 - gambled
Marketplace Sales:
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31428;5;u312
https://backpack.tf/item/15366972477 - July 12th
https://backpack.tf/item/14515545374 - One of the June sales
https://backpack.tf/item/14033811501 - June 30th
https://backpack.tf/item/14010695923 - probably June 25th
$34.99, June 8th
$29.95, June 13th, July 12th & August 3rd
$25.24, June 25th
$25.49, June 30th
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6 - Keys were:
$1.93, June 8th
$1.95, June 13th
$2, June 25th & 30th
$2.02, July 12th
$1.90, August 3rd
34.99/1.94 = 18.036, rounds to 18 keys
29.95/1.95 = 15.359, rounds to 15 keys
29.95/2.02 =14.827, rounds to 15 keys
29.95/1.9 = 15.763, rounds to 16 keys
25.24/2 = 12.62, rounds to 13 keys
25.49/2 = 12.745, rounds to 13 keys
Sellers/Buyers:
https://i.imgur.com/CrN2Dkj.png
https://i.imgur.com/ejo8bFj.png
https://backpack.tf/item/15558905645 - ~11.8 keys
https://backpack.tf/item/13980545649 - ~11.8 keys
https://backpack.tf/item/14184552054 - ~11.8 keys
https://backpack.tf/item/13892688724 - 15 keys
https://backpack.tf/item/14293769126 - ~15.5 keys
https://backpack.tf/item/15939586112 - marketplace
Sales at:
11 (2x)
12 (2x)
13 (3x, 2 marketplace)
15 (2x, marketplace)
16 (marketplace)
18 (marketplace)
Lone buyer at 11 keys doesn’t counter the 2 sellers at 11, and I’m fairly certain the buy order won’t last too long anyway.
With 3 sellers at under 12 keys, it wouldn’t be ideal to stray too far from them. I’ll exclude the sales at 15+, as we have pure sales as high as 13 keys.
Taking 11-13 keys.
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198349848918#!/compare/1754870400/1754956800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198103405324#!/compare/1754611200/1755129600
https://backpack.tf/item/15558905645
12 keys match, was the first ~11.8 key seller I had listed
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198103405324#!/compare/1755820800/1756252800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199004803157#!/compare/1756166400/1756252800
https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Radiant%20Rivalry%20Covert%20Covers&at=2025-08-27T10:40:25.151Z - labelled as 12 keys + 14.77 ref
https://backpack.tf/item/15558905645
Follows the 12 key purchase, re-sold for a profit, so not invalid
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199085116273#!/compare/1754611200/1754697600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198081970832#!/compare/1725062400/1755907200
https://backpack.tf/item/14453534438
Bulk-ish on both ends
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198395478117#!/compare/1752105600/1755648000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198439075368#!/compare/1754265600/1755648000
https://backpack.tf/item/14140769513
Untraceable, potentially scammed
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198439075368#!/compare/1754265600/1755648000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199131345389#!/compare/1755561600/1755648000
https://backpack.tf/item/14140769513
Untraceable
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199131345389#!/compare/1755561600/1755648000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199072654974#!/compare/1755561600/1755648000
https://backpack.tf/item/14140769513
Untraceable
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199008005844#!/compare/1755993600/1756252800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199004803157#!/compare/1755993600/1756080000
https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Radiant%20Rivalry%20Covert%20Covers&at=2025-08-27T10:40:25.151Z - labelled as 12 keys + 14.66 ref
https://backpack.tf/item/16093874607
Untraceable, follows the July 12th marketplace
https://backpack.tf/item/14495782525 - sold to an untraceable buyer
https://backpack.tf/item/13980545649 - untraceable buyer, was the 2nd listing at ~11.8 keys
https://backpack.tf/item/14184552054 - listed on mannco, dunno if by the bot owner or by someone that bought it off them. was the 3rd listing at ~11.8 keys
Updated Sellers/Buyers:
https://i.imgur.com/2WR1XR9.png
https://i.imgur.com/FkXbeDg.png - buyers at ~12.3 keys
https://backpack.tf/item/14443945495 - 14 keys
https://backpack.tf/item/14140769513 - 14 keys
https://backpack.tf/item/13892688724 - 15 keys
https://backpack.tf/item/15939586112 - $29.95
https://backpack.tf/item/14495782525 - $29.95
I still maintain that the marketplace sales at 15+ look like outliers, and one of the two 15 key marketplace sales are now invalid due to re-selling to a bot for less. However, I'm considering dropping 11 from the range, with the buyers now up to ~12.3 keys.
3 new mptf sales at $29.95 have occurred since this suggestion was made. Also, the sellers have risen to 15.5. I think that this will need to be resubmitted with a greater high-end