Sale 1:

Sold for 14 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199206009808#!/compare/1747872000/1747958400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198874423095#!/compare/1747872000/1748131200

https://backpack.tf/item/15162852335

= 14 keys

Sale 2:

Sold for 14 keys?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198158353593#!/compare/1752278400/1752710400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199069362373#!/compare/1752278400/1752364800

https://backpack.tf/item/15088000915

Keys appear to match, IDs don’t as the hat was repainted.

With the other sale at 14, it shouldn’t matter too much if we count this or not. I think it’s fair to say it did sell for 14 here.

= 14 keys

Sale 3:

Sold for 13 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199564942025#!/compare/1753315200/1753401600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198340829257#!/compare/1753315200/1753401600

https://backpack.tf/item/15059227947

= 13 keys

Sale 4:

Sold to a bot for 11 keys + ~1 key in metal (Buyer’s end)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198874423095#!/compare/1754438400/1754524800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199663649981#!/compare/1754438400/1754524800

https://backpack.tf/item/15162852335

Follows the first 14 key purchase.

= 12 keys

Sale 5:

Most likely sold to a bot for 11 keys + ~1 key in metal (Buyer’s end)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199663649981#!/compare/1754438400/1754524800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198030495003#!/compare/1736726400/1751068800 - won’t update, manually checking their steam inventory shows no keys

https://backpack.tf/item/14997145670

The bot bought another one of this hat in the sale above. We can assume that the remaining items that don’t match with the other one were most likely involved in this sale.

= 12 keys

Sale 6:

Sold to STN for 12 keys + less than half a key in metal

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198854039419#!/compare/1751068800/1751241600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198923774795#!/compare/1748390400/1751155200

https://backpack.tf/item/15059227947

While nothing useful appears on the buyer’s end, it does appear to be another STN bot. I don’t know how it works, but maybe the seller dumped multiple items to STN, it went to this bot first, and then immediately got traded to their unusual bot or something.

= 12 keys

Sale 7:

Sold to quicksell.store bot 12 keys + negligible metal

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199212550842#!/compare/1748908800/1748995200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199110809353#!/compare/1748822400/1748908800

https://backpack.tf/item/15043251904

= 12 keys

Sale 8:

Sold for 11 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199206009808#!/compare/1753574400/1753660800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850407517#!/compare/1753574400/1753660800

https://backpack.tf/item/15043251904

= 11 keys

Marketplace Sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31480;5;u360

https://backpack.tf/item/15172768908 - July 16th

$29.99, May 22nd

$32.99, May 29th

$31, July 16th

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6 - keys were:

$1.94, May 22nd

$1.93, May 29th

$2.01, July 16th

29.99/1.94 = 15.459, rounds to 15 keys

32.99/1.93= 17.093, rounds to 17 keys

31/2.01 = 15.423, rounds to 15 keys

Other Sales:

#1

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198216109597 - won’t update

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199110809353#!/compare/1753142400/1753228800

https://backpack.tf/item/15816372545

Untraceable/Bulk to quicksell.store

#2

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198077855693#!/compare/1749340800/1749513600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1749254400/1749340800

https://backpack.tf/item/15172768908

Untraceable

#3

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198915434053#!/compare/1751760000/1752451200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198158353593#!/compare/1752278400/1752710400

https://backpack.tf/item/15088000915

Untraceable. I assume this is the correct buyer given the next trade (Sale X)

#4

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198201294447#!/compare/1747353600/1747526400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199536459741#!/compare/1747353600/1747440000

https://backpack.tf/item/15747655223

Untraceable, 21 ref matches

#5

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199069442401#!/compare/1746921600/1747699200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199132184792#!/compare/1747440000/1747526400

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Searing%20Stove%20Strikeout&at=2025-08-14T16:43:08.883Z - labelled as 11 keys + 32 ref

https://backpack.tf/item/15747655223

Untraceable

#6

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198030926242#!/compare/1749772800/1749945600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198177872379#!/compare/1749859200/1749945600

https://backpack.tf/item/15006826927

Untraceable, likely backpack buy

#7

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199026390261#!/compare/1747699200/1747785600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199103867767#!/compare/1741305600/1747785600

https://backpack.tf/item/15666573354

Bulk purchase from STN

#8

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850121720#!/compare/1753401600/1753488000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199206009808#!/compare/1753574400/1753660800

https://backpack.tf/item/15043251904

Untraceable, missing info in history

https://backpack.tf/item/15047505388 - quicksell.store bots

https://backpack.tf/item/15029131411 - marketplace

Sellers:

https://i.imgur.com/N8PZRuH.png

https://backpack.tf/item/14997145670 - 15 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/15003041200 - 15 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/15059227947 - 15 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/15816372545 - ~15.5 keys

Buyers at ~12 keys

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31480;5;u360

https://backpack.tf/item/15043251904 - $31

https://backpack.tf/item/15029131411 - $31

https://backpack.tf/item/15666573354 - $31

https://backpack.tf/item/15052383401 - $31

https://backpack.tf/item/15006826927 - $31

Sales at:

11

12 (4x)

13

14 (2x)

15 (2x, marketplace)

17 (marketplace)

17 looks like an outlier, and there are cheaper sellers. Excluding 17.

Magnitude of buyers at 12 keys, excluding 11.

While there are a lot of buyers at 12, there are also a lot of sales at 12, making 12 a common trading point. Keeping 12 in the range.

Taking 12-15 keys.