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Sale 1:
Sold for 14 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199206009808#!/compare/1747872000/1747958400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198874423095#!/compare/1747872000/1748131200
https://backpack.tf/item/15162852335
= 14 keys
Sale 2:
Sold for 14 keys?
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198158353593#!/compare/1752278400/1752710400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199069362373#!/compare/1752278400/1752364800
https://backpack.tf/item/15088000915
Keys appear to match, IDs don’t as the hat was repainted.
With the other sale at 14, it shouldn’t matter too much if we count this or not. I think it’s fair to say it did sell for 14 here.
= 14 keys
Sale 3:
Sold for 13 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199564942025#!/compare/1753315200/1753401600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198340829257#!/compare/1753315200/1753401600
https://backpack.tf/item/15059227947
= 13 keys
Sale 4:
Sold to a bot for 11 keys + ~1 key in metal (Buyer’s end)
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198874423095#!/compare/1754438400/1754524800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199663649981#!/compare/1754438400/1754524800
https://backpack.tf/item/15162852335
Follows the first 14 key purchase.
= 12 keys
Sale 5:
Most likely sold to a bot for 11 keys + ~1 key in metal (Buyer’s end)
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199663649981#!/compare/1754438400/1754524800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198030495003#!/compare/1736726400/1751068800 - won’t update, manually checking their steam inventory shows no keys
https://backpack.tf/item/14997145670
The bot bought another one of this hat in the sale above. We can assume that the remaining items that don’t match with the other one were most likely involved in this sale.
= 12 keys
Sale 6:
Sold to STN for 12 keys + less than half a key in metal
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198854039419#!/compare/1751068800/1751241600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198923774795#!/compare/1748390400/1751155200
https://backpack.tf/item/15059227947
While nothing useful appears on the buyer’s end, it does appear to be another STN bot. I don’t know how it works, but maybe the seller dumped multiple items to STN, it went to this bot first, and then immediately got traded to their unusual bot or something.
= 12 keys
Sale 7:
Sold to quicksell.store bot 12 keys + negligible metal
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199212550842#!/compare/1748908800/1748995200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199110809353#!/compare/1748822400/1748908800
https://backpack.tf/item/15043251904
= 12 keys
Sale 8:
Sold for 11 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199206009808#!/compare/1753574400/1753660800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850407517#!/compare/1753574400/1753660800
https://backpack.tf/item/15043251904
= 11 keys
Marketplace Sales:
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31480;5;u360
https://backpack.tf/item/15172768908 - July 16th
$29.99, May 22nd
$32.99, May 29th
$31, July 16th
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6 - keys were:
$1.94, May 22nd
$1.93, May 29th
$2.01, July 16th
29.99/1.94 = 15.459, rounds to 15 keys
32.99/1.93= 17.093, rounds to 17 keys
31/2.01 = 15.423, rounds to 15 keys
Other Sales:
#1
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198216109597 - won’t update
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199110809353#!/compare/1753142400/1753228800
https://backpack.tf/item/15816372545
Untraceable/Bulk to quicksell.store
#2
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198077855693#!/compare/1749340800/1749513600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1749254400/1749340800
https://backpack.tf/item/15172768908
Untraceable
#3
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198915434053#!/compare/1751760000/1752451200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198158353593#!/compare/1752278400/1752710400
https://backpack.tf/item/15088000915
Untraceable. I assume this is the correct buyer given the next trade (Sale X)
#4
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198201294447#!/compare/1747353600/1747526400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199536459741#!/compare/1747353600/1747440000
https://backpack.tf/item/15747655223
Untraceable, 21 ref matches
#5
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199069442401#!/compare/1746921600/1747699200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199132184792#!/compare/1747440000/1747526400
https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Searing%20Stove%20Strikeout&at=2025-08-14T16:43:08.883Z - labelled as 11 keys + 32 ref
https://backpack.tf/item/15747655223
Untraceable
#6
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198030926242#!/compare/1749772800/1749945600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198177872379#!/compare/1749859200/1749945600
https://backpack.tf/item/15006826927
Untraceable, likely backpack buy
#7
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199026390261#!/compare/1747699200/1747785600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199103867767#!/compare/1741305600/1747785600
https://backpack.tf/item/15666573354
Bulk purchase from STN
#8
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850121720#!/compare/1753401600/1753488000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199206009808#!/compare/1753574400/1753660800
https://backpack.tf/item/15043251904
Untraceable, missing info in history
https://backpack.tf/item/15047505388 - quicksell.store bots
https://backpack.tf/item/15029131411 - marketplace
Sellers:
https://i.imgur.com/N8PZRuH.png
https://backpack.tf/item/14997145670 - 15 keys
https://backpack.tf/item/15003041200 - 15 keys
https://backpack.tf/item/15059227947 - 15 keys
https://backpack.tf/item/15816372545 - ~15.5 keys
Buyers at ~12 keys
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31480;5;u360
https://backpack.tf/item/15043251904 - $31
https://backpack.tf/item/15029131411 - $31
https://backpack.tf/item/15666573354 - $31
https://backpack.tf/item/15052383401 - $31
https://backpack.tf/item/15006826927 - $31
Sales at:
11
12 (4x)
13
14 (2x)
15 (2x, marketplace)
17 (marketplace)
17 looks like an outlier, and there are cheaper sellers. Excluding 17.
Magnitude of buyers at 12 keys, excluding 11.
While there are a lot of buyers at 12, there are also a lot of sales at 12, making 12 a common trading point. Keeping 12 in the range.
Taking 12-15 keys.