Sale #1

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31480;5;u360

mp.tf sale on 9/29/25

$31.00 / $1.90 = 16.3

Rounding to 16

Sale #2

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31480;5;u360

https://backpack.tf/item/15052383401

mp.tf sale on 10/10/25

$31.00 / $1.90 = 16.3

Rounding to 16

Sale #3

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31480;5;u360

mp.tf sale on 11/07/25

$31.00 / $1.84 = 16.9

Rounding to 17

Sale #4

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31480;5;u360

mp.tf sale on 12/10/25

$23.40 / $1.80 = 13

13

Sale #5

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31480;5;u360

mp.tf sale on 12/12/25

$23.40 / $1.80 = 13

13

Sale #6

https://backpack.tf/item/16252550237

?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198353309412#!/compare/1762128000/1762560000

Sale #7

https://backpack.tf/item/16252550237

?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199537028749#!/compare/1763164800/1763251200

Sale #8

https://backpack.tf/item/16212374558

Bulk

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199508413463#!/compare/1760313600/1760572800

Sale #9

https://backpack.tf/item/15680591005

?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135388328#!/compare/1761436800/1761523200

Sale #10

https://backpack.tf/item/15172945942

?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199088594463#!/compare/1760745600/1761004800

Sale #11

https://backpack.tf/item/15172945942

Bulk

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198211445756#!/compare/1760745600/1760832000

Sale #12

https://backpack.tf/item/15172768908

STN dump

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199761859520#!/compare/1760486400/1764288000

Sale #13

https://backpack.tf/item/15172768908

15 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199564942025#!/compare/1764374400/1764460800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199180469810#!/compare/1753401600/1765324800

Sale #14

https://backpack.tf/item/15140135149

9 keys 3.55 ref

Confirmed by glad.tf: https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Searing%20Stove%20Strikeout&at=2025-12-18T01:55:13.704Z

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198243984168#!/compare/1761782400/1762473600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198062747535#!/compare/1762387200/1762473600

Rounding to 9

Sale #15

https://backpack.tf/item/15059227947

12 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1758499200/1758585600 (ID: 16200857015)

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199220156807#!/compare/1758499200/1758585600

Sale #16

https://backpack.tf/item/15059227947

stn dump

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199220156807#!/compare/1758758400/1758844800

Sale #17

https://backpack.tf/item/15059227947

?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199209545201#!/compare/1759536000/1759881600

Sale #18

https://backpack.tf/item/15059227947

?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199089600390#!/compare/1763769600/1765065600

Sale #19

https://backpack.tf/item/15059227947

13 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199110809353#!/compare/1765670400/1765756800 (ID: 16516958945)

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198306550671#!/compare/1762560000/1765929600

Sale #20

https://backpack.tf/item/15029131411

?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199528452902#!/compare/1762387200/1765324800

Sale #21

https://backpack.tf/item/15026294153

shitsell dump

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199250050641#!/compare/1750204800/1761955200

Sale #22

https://backpack.tf/item/15022153388

10?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198253544697#!/compare/1763251200/1763337600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199071657288#!/compare/1765324800/1765497600

Sale #23

https://backpack.tf/item/14997145670

18 keys

Confirmed by glad.tf: https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Searing%20Stove%20Strikeout&at=2025-12-18T01:55:13.704Z

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199186541168#!/compare/1759190400/1759276800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198057424888#!/compare/1759190400/1759276800

Sale #24

https://backpack.tf/item/14997145670

10 keys 0.77 ref

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198057424888#!/compare/1759363200/1759449600 (ID: 16238881872)

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199232380670#!/compare/1759363200/1759449600

Rounding to 10

Sale #25

https://backpack.tf/item/14997145670

?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199232380670#!/compare/1762646400/1762732800

Sale #26

https://backpack.tf/item/14997145670

?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198436097789#!/compare/1764547200/1764633600

Sale #27

https://backpack.tf/item/14997145670

?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198436097789#!/compare/1765065600/1765324800

Sale #28

https://backpack.tf/item/14997145670

12 keys 0.66 ref

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199026390261#!/compare/1765238400/1765324800 (ID: 16491044016)

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198046555547#!/compare/1764374400/1765324800

Rounding to 12

Current sellers:

14 keys on bp.tf

Sales: 16, 16, 17, 13, 13, 15, 9, 12, 13, 10 (unusable), 18, 10, 12

Given the 14 key seller is only 10 hours old, I am going to disregard it as an unsold. Quickbuyers pay 10 keys. Going with 12 - 16 captures the bulk of the sales while also omitting the low and high outliers. Additionally, the unsold would fall within the middle of this proposed range.

Final price: 12 - 16