Suggestion: Aurora Skies Hot Spaniel at 22–25 keys

Given the same day movements and shuffling between banned alt accounts before being moved to MannCo, assuming that all movements from here until the MCS sale are scamming related, disregarding these and the MCS sale.

Sale 1: Bulk

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198100471492#!/compare/1759276800/1759363200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198139627699#!/compare/1759276800/1759363200

Sale 2: Bulk

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198139627699#!/compare/1759536000/1759622400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198070774923#!/compare/1759536000/1759622400

Sale 3 is untrace, it doesn't sell through marketplace as dates don't line up, but figuring nothing is given to schererman or from chatterbox of value for this.

Item 4: https://backpack.tf/item/15638321954

Sale 1: Untrace, date disparity on seller and buyer seems to relist on Marketplace same day

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198100385002#!/compare/1756512000/1758067200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199537028749#!/compare/1756944000/1757030400

Item 5: https://backpack.tf/item/15510903925

Sale 1: Bot dump

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198282065071#!/compare/1755648000/1755734400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198453530349#!/compare/1755648000/1755734400

Sale 2: Untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198453530349#!/compare/1755820800/1755907200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198307493062#!/compare/1755820800/1755993600

Sale 3: Bot dump

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198307493062#!/compare/1759363200/1761868800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199102926014#!/compare/1759276800/1759363200

Item 6: https://backpack.tf/item/15381043234

Sale 1: 23 keys, the outgoing keys from ivynator go to Hoogs, who then spends them at some point in the date discrepancy, which we can tell since the Brand Loyalist he buys comes from the same place the keys from ivy go to, item history is linked below

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197963108386#!/compare/1755648000/1756944000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198965028463#!/compare/1755388800/1756684800

https://backpack.tf/item/14871452763

Sale 2: 22 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198965028463#!/compare/1757203200/1757289600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198183600129#!/compare/1757116800/1757203200

Item 7: https://backpack.tf/item/9694724001

Every single movement on this is untrace, as there isn't a single history where I can find it actually appearing. Most of the intermediary movements are bots, before what looks like an STN pickup, with a date mismatch so there's not even a distinguishable amount of keys received by the STN bot, before it moves to a banned account.

Item 8: https://backpack.tf/item/15337366623

Both movements are MannCo sales.

Item 9: https://backpack.tf/item/15261471040

Sale 1: Sold alongside 20k for an Iridescence Reel Fly Hat

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198271577665#!/compare/1759276800/1759881600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198229016104#!/compare/1759795200/1759881600

Given that microing this at buyer's for the RFH would put it at bulk value, and that based on the adds, any valuation with the Iri as a mini would lead to this likely exceeding sellers, I'd mark this as bulk and use it in updating the RFH.

Sale 2: Bot dump

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198229016104#!/compare/1761004800/1761091200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198453530349#!/compare/1761004800/1761091200

Item 10: https://backpack.tf/item/15248453441

Sale 1: Untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198066569256#!/compare/1756771200/1756944000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198062747535#!/compare/1756857600/1756944000

Sale 2: Bulk

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198062747535#!/compare/1757462400/1757548800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198240343922#!/compare/1757462400/1757548800

Other movements are with a banned bot, and would be bot dumps anyways, so excluding.

Item 11: https://backpack.tf/item/15231715383

Sale 1: 25k pure

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197971792668#!/compare/1756771200/1757289600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198274079866#!/compare/1757030400/1757203200

Item 12: https://backpack.tf/item/15226947880

Sale 1: Untrace, date mismatch might miss a movement here as well

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198111049983#!/compare/1759363200/1760054400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198199284954#!/compare/1760486400/1760572800

Sale 2: Incomplete, another date mismatch, no incoming key bundles share a history on chatterbox's side, Wer1 has 14 outgoing to Chatterbox, but that alone would be below buyers and would be excluded.

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198199284954#!/compare/1762560000/1762819200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198049215945#!/compare/1761350400/1762041600

Marketplace sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31497;5;u369

Sold for $79.99 on Aug 23rd and Sept 22nd, for $54.80 on Oct 27th, and for $53.66 on Nov 10th

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6 (Edit to add in the key link)

Key prices for these days are $1.84, $1.90, $1.83, and $1.83, respectively

Aug 23rd: $79.99 / $1.84 = 43.47k

Sept 22nd: $79.99 / $1.90 = 42.1k

Oct 27th: $54.80 / $1.83 = 29.94k

Nov 10th: $53.66 / $1.83 = 29.32k

Classifieds link: https://imgur.com/a/smzs9pm

Sales at 22k, 23k, 25k, and marketplace sales (rounded) at 29k, 30k, 42k, and 43k.

Excluding all marketplace sales as outliers above the currently unsolds at 25.53k. Remaining sales are a fair enough range, and even though 25k is close to our unsolds, I think the volume of outlier marketplace sales relative to pure sales is enough to warrant including 25k in the range. Taking 22k for the low end and 25k for the high end.