Mini time again

Item 1 (Duped): https://backpack.tf/item/227794245

Doesn't seem to be any genuine movements, just dupes.

Item 2 (Duped): https://backpack.tf/item/298707251

Sale 1: Bulk

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198202278248#!/compare/1756944000/1757548800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199192088525#!/compare/1757462400/1757548800

Merendas seems to sell it, but can't tell where it went, Mike is another dupe owner, as is Teddy.

Item 3: https://backpack.tf/item/225850568

Sale 1: Untrace, no keys connect between Erik/Piu Piu, many are plausible between Riv, but there are several bundles that share the same history which could also be in the ballpark of the items obtained. LPP is not bulk here speculatively, given the value of other items obtained, and near ID searches don't help isolate which amount of keys were involved.

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198141187659#!/compare/1757116800/1757203200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198091502579#!/compare/1757116800/1757203200

Item 4: https://backpack.tf/item/708500534

Sale 1: Presumably the marketplace sale listed below

Sale 2: Sold for an Eldritch Rift Taunt: Luxury Lounge, an Aurora Skies Hot Spaniel, a Vivid Plasma Modest Metal Pile of Scrap, a Miami Nights Firewall Helmet, a Green Confetti Antarctic Eyewear, and a Holy Grail Taunt: The Shred Alert

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198139627699#!/compare/1759536000/1759622400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198070774923#!/compare/1759536000/1759622400

Eldritch Rift Taunt: Luxury Lounge open suggestion can be found here: https://backpack.tf/suggestion/691a0f9b75226f437d0f057c

Taking the unrounded price of 72.5 keys.

Aurora Skies Hot Spaniel open suggestion can be found here: https://backpack.tf/suggestion/691a3ddbe85d77ed0e0bc362

Taking the midpoint of 23.5 keys.

Green Confetti Antarctic Eyewear open suggestion can be found here: https://backpack.tf/suggestion/691a43d8c7fd977c6a0a7a98

Taking the price of 18 keys.

Vivid Plasma Modest Metal Pile of Scrap isn't priceable, only two untrace movements and no sales on Marketplace, microing at buyers of 10.27k. This would be supported by the fact schererman resold this to (presumably) a buy order for 10 keys and 2 refined about a week and a half after the initial transaction, and doesn't change our rounding to 10 keys either. Compares included below alongside the classifieds link.

Compares:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198070774923#!/compare/1760313600/1760400000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199538198279#!/compare/1760313600/1760400000

Classifieds link: https://imgur.com/a/0MFfrpM

Miami Nights Firewall Helmet open suggestion can be found here: https://backpack.tf/suggestion/691a4b8252bb208fdf05a0e9

Taking the midpoint of 20.5 keys.

For the Holy Grail Taunt: The Shred Alert, it's being micro'd at what it was resold for as well:

https://backpack.tf/item/9313651099

Was sold to Komi in this compare:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198070774923#!/compare/1760918400/1761091200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198349848918#!/compare/1761004800/1761091200

You can see 7 keys and a bunch of ref go outbound to Philbert bot (matching where the taunt came in for the day), and see that on the seller's side, he got a Batsaber from Philbert bot the same day. Additionally, I attached Next snapshots of the buy order Komi had placed, which lines up with we see outgoing to the bot, which is 7.9 keys, so microing this at that value, backed up by the snapshots and outgoing with a shared history to seller's pickups.

https://next.backpack.tf/classifieds/snapshots/Holy%20Grail%20Taunt:%20The%20Shred%20Alert/68f82293abd5e971b3090268

Snapshot permalink: https://imgur.com/u0AaEUd

Total for Sale 2: 72.5 + 23.5 + 18 + 10 + 20.5 + 7.9 = 152.4 keys

Item 5: https://backpack.tf/item/1324053218

Sale 1: 171k pure

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198860735519#!/compare/1757116800/1757203200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199088995056#!/compare/1757116800/1757203200

Sale 2: Sold for a Delightful Doves Shadow Shroud and 85 keys, which this is a mini for

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199088995056#!/compare/1758326400/1758412800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198084205929#!/compare/1758326400/1758412800

Marketplace sale:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/337;5;u11

Sold for $349.99 Sept 13th

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6

Key price for the day is $1.82

$349.99 / $1.82 = 192.3k

Classifieds link: https://imgur.com/a/VKKdRaZ

Sales at 152.4k, 171k, and 192.3k. Buyers at 130k and sellers at 200k, realistically if I were to omit the high sale of 192.3k due to proximity to sellers and whatnot, I'd have to omit the sale at 152.4k as well to not skew it lower. This basically gives us either a 40k range with a midpoint of 172k, or a single sale with a value of 171k. Seeing as this doesn't change the overall valuation, I'd rather include both sales to show the spread this can have.

Taking 152.4k rounded down to 152k for the low end, and 192.3k rounded down to 192k for the high end.