n/a
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Sale #1
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/1071;11;kt-3
https://backpack.tf/item/16342726377
mp.tf sale on 3/3/26
$7500.00 / $1.92 = 3906.25
Rounding to 3900
Sale #2
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/1071;11;kt-3
mp.tf sale on 3/28/26
$7850.00 / $1.99 = 3944.7
Rounding to 3950
Sale #3
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/1071;11;kt-3
mp.tf sale on 3/31/26
$7650.00 / $1.98 = 3863.6
Rounding to 3860
Sale #4
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/1071;11;kt-3
https://backpack.tf/item/16501922529
mp.tf sale on 4/19/26
$7312.50 / $1.98 = 3693.2
Rounding to 3690
Sale #5
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/1071;11;kt-3
mp.tf sale on 4/20/26
$7850.00 / $1.95 = 4025.6
Rounding to 4030
Sale #6
https://backpack.tf/item/16888688171
3699 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198330809883#!/compare/1775779200/1775865600 (ID: 16922708684)
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199032510824#!/compare/1775692800/1775865600
Sale #7
https://backpack.tf/item/16888688171
cash?
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199032510824#!/compare/1779753600/1779926400
Sale #8
https://backpack.tf/item/16888688171
3900 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061836787#!/compare/1779667200/1779840000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198441328174#!/compare/1779580800/1779753600
Sale #9
https://backpack.tf/item/16885674159
?
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198011495171#!/compare/1778112000/1778198400
Sale #10
https://backpack.tf/item/16831922825
?
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198383201187#!/compare/1775088000/1775260800
Sale #11
https://backpack.tf/item/16831922825
?
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198083134207#!/compare/1776038400/1776211200
Sale #12
https://backpack.tf/item/16829058795
sold for a darkblaze festive tree
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197982127154#!/compare/1776470400/1776556800
already used there
Sale #13
https://backpack.tf/item/16829058795
2 pans for BF TC
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198131640480#!/compare/1776470400/1776556800
already used there
Sale #14
https://backpack.tf/item/16829058795
cash presumably
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198985975922#!/compare/1776556800/1776902400
Sale #15
https://backpack.tf/item/16829058795
bulk dump
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197966756586#!/compare/1777075200/1777248000
Sale #16
https://backpack.tf/item/16818018410
cash presumably
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198068081453#!/compare/1775347200/1775433600
Sale #17
https://backpack.tf/item/16818018410
?
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198177872379#!/compare/1776556800/1776643200
Sale #18
https://backpack.tf/item/16818018410
?
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199522345272#!/compare/1776729600/1776816000
Sale #19
https://backpack.tf/item/16818018410
3700 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197976466907#!/compare/1776643200/1776729600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198161130473#!/compare/1776470400/1776729600
Sale #20
https://backpack.tf/item/16818018410
3750 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198161130473#!/compare/1776729600/1777334400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198107845125#!/compare/1776729600/1777334400
Sale #21
https://backpack.tf/item/16587623875
Bulk. Too complicated to use with too many unsolds
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198058356352#!/compare/1774915200/1775001600
Sale #22
https://backpack.tf/item/16587623875
?
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198129552058#!/compare/1774915200/1775001600
Sale #23
https://backpack.tf/item/16501922529
bulk
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199203180827#!/compare/1773360000/1773446400
Sale #24
https://backpack.tf/item/16501922529
Sold for a Forever and Forever! Head Prize (920) + 2850 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198441328174#!/compare/1774483200/1774569600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198792770447#!/compare/1774396800/1774569600
920 + 2850 = 3770
3770
-----
head prize suggestion:
https://backpack.tf/suggestion/6a1b2fcc7b2b7f6a070b5d7d
-----
Sale #25
https://backpack.tf/item/16501922529
Sold for a TW ballcap (no mini, buyers at 500) + 3290 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198792770447#!/compare/1774828800/1775001600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198129552058#!/compare/1774915200/1775001600
500 + 3290 = 3790
3790
Sale #26
https://backpack.tf/item/16494468409
cash?
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198332949751#!/compare/1774137600/1774396800
Sale #27
https://backpack.tf/item/16494468409
sold for a misty skull HWNN (suggestion at 1940) + DF vive (suggestion at 2150) + spelled V.plasma belt (a lot)
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198261483133#!/compare/1776643200/1776729600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198127403038#!/compare/1776643200/1776729600
This sale is over 5000. Not bothering
-----
suggestions
hwnn: https://backpack.tf/suggestion/69eec5474e98e65dd60f5746
vive: https://backpack.tf/suggestion/6a1b331ba96f3fc1630e4263
-----
Sale #28
https://backpack.tf/item/16342726377
1:1 knifestorm dapper topper
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198145412029#!/compare/1778544000/1778716800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198038555382#!/compare/1778544000/1778630400
being used there
Sale #29
https://backpack.tf/item/16342726377
2x pan for double spelled bonzo kiss king
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198015031926#!/compare/1779408000/1779667200
Sale #30
https://backpack.tf/item/16305438211
3x pan + PS antlers for DB viewfinder??
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198082861107#!/compare/1776902400/1777420800
idk, not usable tho
Sale #31
https://backpack.tf/item/16302646259
sold with a spelled C.B. AA + 285 keys for a bonzo tossle
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198335636056#!/compare/1772496000/1772582400
use there
Sale #32
https://backpack.tf/item/16302646259
Sold for SF beak (suggestion at 1635) + AF kabuto (suggestion at 895) + frostbite brigade (suggestion at 450) + sulph noir (no mini, buyers at 120) + 960 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198846276257#!/compare/1772841600/1772928000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198220098345#!/compare/1772755200/1772928000
1635 + 895 + 450 + 120 + 960 = 4060
Rounding to 4050
-----
suggestions
beak: https://backpack.tf/suggestion/6a1cf50b3c1be8e2070f358c
kabuto: https://backpack.tf/suggestion/6a1cf9874cb2c5c6f403d69a
brigade: https://backpack.tf/suggestion/6a1cfc263ada0ff7700ba7a3
-----
Sale #33
https://backpack.tf/item/16220320576
1:1 for doorway peak methinks
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198315558870#!/compare/1773619200/1773705600
use there
Sale #34
https://backpack.tf/item/16220320576
sold with 1200 keys for a knifestorm cowl
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198126115646#!/compare/1774828800/1774915200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198072725528#!/compare/1774656000/1774828800
already used there
Sale #35
https://backpack.tf/item/16220320576
sold for a bonzo reggae + 850 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198072725528#!/compare/1774915200/1775088000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198161711912#!/compare/1774483200/1775088000
already used there
Sale #36
https://backpack.tf/item/16175885003
5 pans for triple portal engie set
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199203180827#!/compare/1774137600/1775433600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198141659487#!/compare/1744588800/1776124800
Sale #37
https://backpack.tf/item/16007688230
sold with 1400 keys for a PS BoA
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197982127154#!/compare/1779840000/1780012800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198054740469#!/compare/1779235200/1780012800
using there
Sale #38
https://backpack.tf/item/15957830448
sold with 250 keys for a hmoon rotation + bf stash
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198261483133#!/compare/1777334400/1777420800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198205194977#!/compare/1775001600/1777420800
no rotation mini, try to use there
Sale #39
https://backpack.tf/item/15957830448
3850 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198205194977#!/compare/1778025600/1778976000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198134397080#!/compare/1778889600/1778976000
Sale #40
https://backpack.tf/item/15954784068
huge bulk
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199109683424#!/compare/1776384000/1776470400
far too messy & confusing to use
Sale #41
https://backpack.tf/item/15954784068
?
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198177872379#!/compare/1776384000/1776470400
Sale #42
https://backpack.tf/item/15697151558
3900 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198172573626#!/compare/1775433600/1775520000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198129552058#!/compare/1775433600/1775520000
Sale #43
https://backpack.tf/item/15682375528
1:1 ooze ke
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198045749377#!/compare/1772150400/1772582400
already used there
Sale #44
https://backpack.tf/item/15682375528
sold somehow for a 13th hour pyromancers
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199109683424#!/compare/1772841600/1772928000
use there
Sale #45
https://backpack.tf/item/15628436050
a bunch of industrial festivizers
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850407517#!/compare/1779753600/1779840000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198846276257#!/compare/1779580800/1779840000
Sale #46
https://backpack.tf/item/15601055748
3 pans for spelled hellfire antlers
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198177872379#!/compare/1772755200/1772841600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198315558870#!/compare/1772755200/1772841600
Sale #47
https://backpack.tf/item/15601055748
pans for bonzo kabuto
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198315558870#!/compare/1772841600/1772928000
used already
Sale #48
https://backpack.tf/item/15601055748
bulk for ps salty
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198072391839#!/compare/1778889600/1778976000
used already
Current sellers:
$7777.77 on mp.tf
3900 keys on bp.tf (5x)
3901 keys on bp.tf
4000 keys on bp.tf (2x)
4001 keys on bp.tf
4002 keys on bp.tf
Sales: 3900, 3950, 3860, 3690, 4030, 3699, 3900, 3700, 3750, 3770, 3790, ~5000, 4050, 3850, 3900
I stopped gathering data after ~15 sales, as I believe we have enough information with this to accurately gauge the price. I will keep going if instructed (or if I find time, ill do it on my own).
Final price: 3750 - 3900
w gpan update (I did not read any of it)
You should keep looking for sales to see if 3700 is really worth excluding. You have 3 out of 15 sales supporting that data point, and so far I don't see a good reason to call it an outlier.
Similarly, it might be worth including 3950 as well purely judging by the proof you've provided as of right now.
Ill keep looking but will keep this open for now
New sales:
Sale #49
https://backpack.tf/item/15880453827
2520 keys + HOUWAR?
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199241219836#!/compare/1775779200/1775865600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198441328174#!/compare/1775779200/1775865600
2920
Sale #50
https://backpack.tf/item/15628436050
?
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197966756586#!/compare/1776556800/1776643200
Sale #51
https://backpack.tf/item/15542328231
dblaze & sbtwc tree
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197982127154#!/compare/1776470400/1776556800
already used there
Sale #52
https://backpack.tf/item/15542328231
2x pan for bf tc
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198131640480#!/compare/1776470400/1776556800
already used there
Sale #53
https://backpack.tf/item/15502743885
2x pan for ps peak
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198315558870#!/compare/1773273600/1773360000
already used there
Sale #54
https://backpack.tf/item/15502743885
cash?
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198036671190#!/compare/1773360000/1773532800
Sale #55
https://backpack.tf/item/15502743885
sold for a double spelled eerie o.fire crones + PS harmburg
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198082861107#!/compare/1778284800/1778371200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198057355049#!/compare/1778284800/1778371200
no usable minis on either
Sale #56
https://backpack.tf/item/15502743885
Sold for a GE wraith wrap (suggestion at 145) + BF spook specs (no mini, buyers at 300) + GE tough stuff muffs (suggestion at 88) + MS L'inspecteur (suggestion at 390) + DBD TC (suggestion at 415) + AF tyro (mini at 216) + GE TC (no mini, buyers at 770) + O.fire belt (suggestion at 178.5) + CMoon whoopee (suggestion at 475) + Horsemann's Hack Spooky Head-Bouncers (no mini, buyers at 30.31) + Severed Serration Sinner's Shade (no mini, buyers at 44.79) + BF HoC (no mini, buyers at 212) + Smoking lucha (suggestion at 96) + Bubbling belt (suggestion at 147.5)
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198057355049#!/compare/1778803200/1779148800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198026037217#!/compare/1779062400/1779148800
145 + 300 + 88 + 390 + 415 + 216 + 770 + 178.5 + 475 + 30.31 + 44.79 + 212 + 96 + 147.5 = 3508.1
Rounding to 3500
-----
suggestions
wraith: https://backpack.tf/suggestion/6a1f1d36b073b87b4e0d2d61
tough: https://backpack.tf/suggestion/6a1f241bb824f0d64507bc27
l'insp: https://backpack.tf/suggestion/6a1f2dfeaad813a3f2051e64
tc: https://backpack.tf/suggestion/6a1f806775941cfa7a09cabe
belt: https://backpack.tf/suggestion/6a1cd4092897c10cda0c8663
whoopee: https://backpack.tf/suggestion/6a1cef28377c79a0970284fe
lucha: https://backpack.tf/suggestion/6a1f43c4be5e612f1e0e8e76
belt: https://backpack.tf/suggestion/6a1f45207b5354bb6e092e33
-----
-----
tyroleon mini:
https://backpack.tf/item/15465614195
216 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198109161900#!/compare/1770336000/1770422400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198220052159#!/compare/1770249600/1770422400
-----
Sale #57
https://backpack.tf/item/15343427349
3900 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199191769650#!/compare/1777852800/1778025600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198441328174#!/compare/1777852800/1778025600
Sale #58
https://backpack.tf/item/14946722410
3649 keys + 4 max heads (~104)
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198055617854#!/compare/1776556800/1777161600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199098026893#!/compare/1776556800/1776643200
3649 + 104 = 3753
Rounding to 3750
Sale #59
https://backpack.tf/item/14946722410
3900 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199203332862#!/compare/1778284800/1778371200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198441328174#!/compare/1778284800/1778371200
confirmed: https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Strange%20Professional%20Killstreak%20Golden%20Frying%20Pan&at=2026-06-02T21:12:27.380Z
Sale #60
https://backpack.tf/item/14693259444
?
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198177872379#!/compare/1775952000/1776038400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198072470593#!/compare/1776124800/1776211200
Sale #61
https://backpack.tf/item/14693259444
sold with 1000 keys for spelled hg pullover
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198043465434#!/compare/1775779200/1776211200
already using there
Sale #62
https://backpack.tf/item/11973360269
cashout
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198101366032#!/compare/1777680000/1777939200
Sale #63
https://backpack.tf/item/11478005530
1:1 vintage sparkle luger
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061610985#!/compare/1779148800/1779408000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197966756586#!/compare/1779321600/1779408000
use there
Sale #64
https://backpack.tf/item/11103814759
cash
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198076467300#!/compare/1778544000/1778630400
Sale #65
https://backpack.tf/item/10899925074
4x pan for bonzo rotation
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198060126263#!/compare/1776556800/1776643200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198275390406#!/compare/1776470400/1776643200
already used there
Sale #66
https://backpack.tf/item/8468102456
A bunch of spelled slop
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198139627699#!/compare/1773705600/1773792000
not wasting my time
Sale #67
https://backpack.tf/item/8116698305
Sold for an arcana cold killer + 700 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198023184551#!/compare/1777939200/1778025600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198846276257#!/compare/1777593600/1778025600
using there
Sale #68
https://backpack.tf/item/8116698305
sold for AA collection & bulk
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198846276257#!/compare/1779580800/1779840000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198208582767#!/compare/1779408000/1779840000
Sale #69
https://backpack.tf/item/7477960124
Sold with 599 keys for a cmoon beret + frostbite swagman + af glengarry + tw geisha + 13th hotrod + secret brigade + arcana gym rat
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198077555267#!/compare/1773360000/1773619200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198171107913#!/compare/1773273600/1773360000
too many non-miniable items
Sale #70
https://backpack.tf/item/4727041282
9x houwar (425 each)
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198087099341#!/compare/1778457600/1778544000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198930230576#!/compare/1778457600/1778544000
3825 keys
Rounding to 3830
-----
houwar mini
https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Hat%20of%20Undeniable%20Wealth%20and%20Respect&at=2026-06-03T01:39:44.479Z
taking 410-440
425
-----
Sale #71
https://backpack.tf/item/4192315938
mg crones + 1000 keys?
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197982127154#!/compare/1776297600/1776384000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199852580246#!/compare/1776297600/1776384000
use there
new sales: 2920, 3500, 3900, 3750, 3900, 3830
I believe 3750 - 3900 is a good range given this new information. Every sale should be accounted for now
the two new sales below 3750 are either likely missing information OR rely heavily on buy orders due to lack of usable sales
Just purchased the pan for sale on Marketplace for the listed price.
7777.77/1.91 = ~4072 keys
https://backpack.tf/item/16885674159
overpay </3 seller unsold for 3900 for a month smh derpy
Arguably this could be 3700-3950 to capture a wider net of sales. Given the median is pretty much the same if we were to go with that range, I'm willing to call this close enough.