Suggestion: Aces High Belgian Detective at 20–40 keys

Price Suggestion

~20 keys

aces

33 votes up

4 votes down

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This suggestion was closed Sat, 01 Aug 26 12:30:55 +0000 by the submitter.

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Comments

Never suggested for low tier unusuals, but my friend asked for help.

So, for last 3 months Aces High Belgian Detective has been sold 3 times:

First one: https://backpack.tf/item/5136957282

Sold May 30 (2 months ago) for $49.99, proof: https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30128;5;u59

According to backpack tf key is 57 ref, 1 ref is $0.03 so 57 * 0.03 = $1.71 for key

And $50 / $1.71 = ~29 keys

Second one: https://backpack.tf/item/17185942990

Sold by Flan for keys Jun 24 (one month ago)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199088631673#!/compare/1782345600/1784764800

Sold for exactly 20 keys (Each removed key moved to Flan's inventory)

Third one: https://backpack.tf/item/10138044413

Sold from wersady to me for 40 keys and I sold it to Honeycomb also for 40 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198023517126#!/compare/1785369600/1785456000

Added keys - from Honeycomb trade, removed keys - sent to wersady

My purchace: https://imgur.com/a/vwBCE7d

Trade to Honeycomb: https://imgur.com/a/otoh63a

So minimum and maximum sales for past 3 months period is 20 and 40 keys respectively, so my suggestion is 20 - 40 keys

key price on may 30th was $1.93; which means it has been sold for ~26 keys. it's still within your range though

Thanks for correcting, forgot use previous key value. Yes, still in suggested range.

This range is far too wide. In a case like this, the outliers are going to have to be determined.

The 20 Key sale seemingly only took a day looking at the histories. While that alone isn't enough to determine that the sale is an outlier, the distance and the time of this sale relative to all the other sales does have to be considered. I would say this sale is an outlier.

I'm assuming that you acted as some form of middleman for Honeycomb, so in reality there's only a single sale at 40 Keys. Relative to all the other sales though, 40 is the most distant by a wide margin. There is an additional fourth sale from Midnight to Flan that is untraceable. But knowing that Flan is a quickbuyer, this sale was most likely for less than 20 Keys: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198104098977#!/compare/1782172800/1782259200

With this in consideration, I would also call 40 Keys an outlier.

This leaves us with just the 26 Key Marketplace sale as the only sale that isn't too high or too low. 26 flat will be more appropriate here.

Fair enough, I'll close this one