Item 1: https://backpack.tf/item/17345977062

Sale 1:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198123123735#!/compare/1785974400/1786060800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198686480655#!/compare/1786060800/1787011200

Untrace

Sale 2:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198686480655#!/compare/1786060800/1787011200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198749215269#!/compare/1785715200/1786060800

Untrace

Sale 3:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198749215269#!/compare/1786060800/1786147200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199029736015#!/compare/1785974400/1786147200

Dumped to a bot for most likely ~511 keys https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Scorching%20Flames%20Killer%20Exclusive&at=2026-08-18T11:52:04.591Z

Item 2: https://backpack.tf/item/17283296611

Sale 4:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198208573135#!/compare/1785888000/1785974400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199564942025#!/compare/1785888000/1785974400

Dumped to STN for ~518 keys

Sale 5:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199564942025#!/compare/1786406400/1786492800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198414515070#!/compare/1786406400/1786492800

Untrace

Item 3: https://backpack.tf/item/17157391158

Sale 6:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198105142155#!/compare/1782604800/1782777600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199026390261#!/compare/1782691200/1782777600

Dumped to STN, 340 keys match but it was most likely higher

Sale 7:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199026390261#!/compare/1782950400/1783036800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198369825938#!/compare/1782950400/1783036800

385 keys match

Sale 8:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198369825938#!/compare/1783123200/1783209600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198285371555#!/compare/1783123200/1783209600

Sold alongside the Burning Flames Hong Kong Cone and 400 keys for the Death at Dusk Team Captain (bulk)

Sale 9:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198285371555#!/compare/1785888000/1785974400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198143563114#!/compare/1785888000/1785974400

Sold for 540 keys (ID 17362849130)

Item 4: https://backpack.tf/item/17005116804

Sale 10:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/538;5;u14

Sold for $1199 on August 11 2026

Keys were $1.91

1199/1.91=627.74 ~628 keys, buyout was 650 keys so it doesn't cap https://archivist.tf/history?item=Scorching%20Flames%20Killer%20Exclusive&at=2026-06-12

Item 5: https://backpack.tf/item/16728760097

Sale 11:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199029736015#!/compare/1786838400/1786924800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198996427035#!/compare/1786838400/1786924800

Untrace

Item 6: https://backpack.tf/item/15001341318

Sale 12:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199109683424#!/compare/1779321600/1779408000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198208573135#!/compare/1779321600/1779408000

Possibly 610 keys but the keys don't match

Sale 13:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198208573135#!/compare/1782086400/1782172800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198032176942#!/compare/1782086400/1782172800

Sold for 530 keys

Sale 14:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198032176942#!/compare/1786060800/1786147200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199472772277#!/compare/1759276800/1786147200

Sold for 545 keys

Item 7: https://backpack.tf/item/8068410509

Mannco.store, not usable

Item 8: https://backpack.tf/item/2791302271

Sale 15:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198136220673#!/compare/1779321600/1779408000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198261483133#!/compare/1779235200/1779321600

Sold alongside 175 keys for the Cloudy Moon Flipped Trilby, better used there since it doesn't have any other sales

Item 9: https://backpack.tf/item/2307662044

Sale 16:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198119485735#!/compare/1779235200/1779494400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198057452720#!/compare/1779408000/1779494400

Sold for a Strange Scorching Flames Smissmas Saxton, better used there (only other sale is bulk)

Sale 17:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198057452720#!/compare/1782432000/1782604800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198137865428#!/compare/1782518400/1782604800

Sold alongside the Purple Energy Candy Crown for the Frostbite Samur-Eye and Frostbite Tyrantium Helmet. Out of all the items this one has the most (Tyrantium Helmet doesn't have any other sales for an example) so this is the item the least likely to need this sale

Sale 18:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198137865428#!/compare/1782604800/1782691200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199029736015#!/compare/1782604800/1782691200

Dumped to a bot for 510 keys (visible in buyer's compare, matches buyout https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Scorching%20Flames%20Killer%20Exclusive&at=2026-08-18T12:11:25.728Z)

Sale 19:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199029736015#!/compare/1782691200/1782864000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198101061668#!/compare/1782777600/1782864000

Sold for 550 keys, near ID doesn't work since the paint was changed

Sales: 340, 385, 510, 511 (potential), 518, 530, 545, 550, 610 (potential), 628

Sellers and buyers:

BPTF - https://imgur.com/a5xbHSa Sellers at 550 keys (1-5 days), 575 keys (2 months), 600 keys (3 days), 700 keys (1 day), buyers up to ~511 keys

MPTF - https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/538;5;u14 Nothing

STN - https://stntrading.eu/item/tf2/Unusual+Scorching+Flames+Killer+Exclusive Buy order at ~512 keys

SCM - https://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Unusual%20Killer%20Exclusive?appid=440&q=Scorching+Flames+Killer+Exclusive+ https://imgur.com/BBKZETs No sellers

340 and 385 are way too low and the sales are most likely wrong. 610 and 628 are higher than sellers, one having been there for a while. Given the current buyers, 510 and 511 look low but i'm keeping 518 in the range despite the fact it was a dump, since buy order dumps have been proven to be a common trading point.

Going with 518-550 keys