Excluding sales that are 2 months or older, due to the abundance of sales here.

Sale 1:

Sold for Stormy Storm Human Cannonball (22) + Neutron Star Wing Mann (In-date at 11.5, multiple sellers for 10 and less, going with 10) + 9 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28823864 - B/O of 40, seller confirms sale (legend)

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198031371895#!/compare/1489104000/1489190400

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337815422#!/compare/1489017600/1489190400

X = 40 (Capped by B/O)

Sale 2:

Sold for 34 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28858997 - B/O of 34

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198080179568#!/compare/1491436800/1491523200

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198141908579#!/compare/1491436800/1491523200

X = 34

Sale 3:

Sold for Miami Nights Executioner (Mini at 32.5 below)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28711716 - B/O of 40

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198200324314#!/compare/1489881600/1489968000

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198041314021#!/compare/1489795200/1489968000

X = 33

Sale 4:

Sold with ~2 keys in items for Searing Noble Amassment (33)

No outpost

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198136200017#!/compare/1492041600/1492128000

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198054758757#!/compare/1491955200/1492041600

X = 31

Sale 5:

Quicksold for 30 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28839395 - Deleted B/O

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198064467753#!/compare/1489795200/1489881600

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198065510619#!/compare/1489363200/1489881600

X = 30

Sale 6:

Sold for Dead Presidents Executioner (26) + >0.5 keys in items

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28836541 - B/O of 40

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198045983942#!/compare/1489795200/1489881600

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198129728237#!/compare/1489708800/1489881600

X = 27

Sale 7:

Sold for 25 keys in ~3 days

No outpost

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198129728237#!/compare/1490054400/1490140800

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198053717045#!/compare/1489708800/1490140800

X = 25

Sale 8:

Sold for 25 keys

No outpost

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198309246958#!/compare/1491004800/1491091200

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198193552842#!/compare/1490918400/1491177600

X = 25

Sale 9:

Sold in ~2 days for 24 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28826937 - No B/O

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198002757046#!/compare/1489104000/1489190400

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198145342465#!/compare/1489190400/1489276800

X = 24

Sale 10:

Quicksold for 24 keys

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198303303837#!/compare/1489708800/1489795200

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198094714199#!/compare/1489708800/1489795200

X = 24

Sale 11:

Quicksold for 22 keys

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198041314021#!/compare/1489795200/1489968000

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198048008254#!/compare/1489881600/1489968000

X = 22

Sale 12:

Sold with ~1 key in items for Orbiting Fire Condor Cap

No outpost

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198114335037#!/compare/1488585600/1488672000

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198018823628#!/compare/1488585600/1488672000

Probably better to use on the condor.

Sale 13:

Sold for Circling Heart Tippler’s Tricorne + 5 keys + Buds (1.9) + ~5 keys in items

No outpost

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198094714199#!/compare/1489708800/1489795200

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198045983942#!/compare/1489708800/1489795200

Couldn’t get a mini on the Tricorne, but I’m almost certain that this’ll fall into the range.

Sale 14:

Sold with ~11 keys in items for Beams Steel Shako

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198004415658#!/compare/1487894400/1487980800

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198046167937#!/compare/1484956800/1487894400

Would be better to update the Shako with this sale.

Sale 15:

Sold for Cloud 9 Burning Bandana

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28833444 - B/O of 37

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198196840501#!/compare/1491955200/1492041600

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198125791160#!/compare/1491868800/1491955200

Can be used on the Bandana.

Sale 16:

Sold for Duped Purple Energy Tough Guy’s Toque

No outpost

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197998290686#!/compare/1489622400/1489708800

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198072238182#!/compare/1489622400/1489708800

Looks like an outlier. Excluding this sale.

Miami Nights Executioner Mini:

http://backpack.tf/suggestion/58f5a2a6e3387704a60e1a92

Sellers:

29 keys:

http://i.imgur.com/AejtJhj.png - 1 day

http://backpack.tf/u/76561198344933095

30 keys:

http://i.imgur.com/1qpcLkc.png - 7 days, duped…wait, what?

http://backpack.tf/u/76561198243530442

32 keys:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28559053 - 5 months, most likely lowered over time

http://backpack.tf/u/76561198026411206

34 keys:

http://i.imgur.com/E0Kmowd.png - 1 month

http://backpack.tf/u/76561197964171516

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28872738

35 keys:

http://i.imgur.com/8g6iYfc.png

http://backpack.tf/u/76561198046167937

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28804076

36 keys:

http://i.imgur.com/Bj5gHwK.png - 2 months

http://backpack.tf/u/76561198053252981

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28863610

37 keys:

http://i.imgur.com/Mf2wJye.png - 11 days, 6 in stock

http://backpack.tf/u/76561198054758757

http://i.imgur.com/CjR01EH.png - 16 days

http://backpack.tf/u/76561198012613726

40 keys:

http://i.imgur.com/WeuGyCg.png - 5 days

http://backpack.tf/u/76561198125791160

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28791667 - 1 month

http://backpack.tf/u/76561198013327062

43 keys:

http://i.imgur.com/sMUXgEo.png - 3 months

http://backpack.tf/u/76561198074924284

Offers:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28869586 - 1 week

http://backpack.tf/u/76561198043992035

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28193176 – 10 months

http://backpack.tf/u/76561197972348237

Sales at:

22

24 (2x)

25 (2x)

27

30

31

33

34

40

40 seems too high, with multiple aged sellers for less. Excluding 40.

Majority of sales at 25 and below sold in a short amount of time. Excluding 25 and below.

Going with 27-34.