This is such a big and massive posting - many respect to the work you have put into making this pricesuggestion. Really, much respect. :)
All this work to have quickbuyers raise
Eh... only 2.5 hours. I have 85% of the proof done already. I'm gonna have to sift out old sales then update with all the new ones. Dunno what mods think, but waiting for their response before I do anything with this.
Seems good upvote!
For the top real sale where I was the buyer, I actually sold most of the stuff you see in the compare for pure which I almost instantly traded for the pan . The final trade was 540 pure + miami nights polar pullover + death at dusk antlers, if that helps you at all.
I think anything below 1190 is low at this point, I offered 1190 to three different pan owners this week and they all declined instantly (one of them even declined 1195).
Just sold that pan for 2400 on marketplace in under a day
$2400.00 / $1.80 = 1333.33 = 1333 keys
high
Can you really call it high if it sold in under a day though ?
unsolds under 1300. 1299 for 7 days, doubt it'll move at all. 1200 for 15 hours.
Looking at that buy order at 1189 i think 1190-1300 might be the way to go.
This is a good representation of the past few weeks of pan market. The current trend might be to go even higher, but until we have enough data points to back that up this will have to do.
due for a new price
tons of sales
Marketplace.tf sales
https://marketplace.tf/items/1071;11;kt-3
$2700.00 July 18th
http://manicbot.me/keyprice/?at=2018-07-18 = keys were $1.93
$2700.00 / $1.93 = 1398.96 = 1399 keys
$2500.00 July 24th
http://manicbot.me/keyprice/?at=2018-07-24 = keys were $1.98
$2500.00 / $1.98 = 1262.63 = 1263 keys
$2200.00 July 29th
http://manicbot.me/keyprice/?at=2018-07-29 = keys were $1.97
$2200.00 / $1.97 = 1116.75 = 1117 keys
(x2) $2649.99 August 3rd
http://manicbot.me/keyprice/?at=2018-08-03 = keys were $1.98
$2649.99 / $1.98 = 1394.73 = 1395 keys
$2129.99 August 7th
http://manicbot.me/keyprice/?at=2018-08-07 = keys were $1.89
$2129.99 / $1.89 = 1126.98 = 1127 keys
$2199.00 August 30th
http://manicbot.me/keyprice/?at=2018-08-30 = keys were $1.88
$2199.00 / $1.88 = 1169.68 = 1170 keys
(x2) $2729.99 September 1st
http://manicbot.me/keyprice/?at=2018-09-01 = keys were $1.88
$2729.99 / $1.88 = 1452.12 = 1452 keys
$2720.00 September 10th
http://manicbot.me/keyprice/?at=2018-09-10 = keys were $1.87
$2720.00 / $1.87 = 1454.55 = 1455 keys
$1950.00 September 12th
http://manicbot.me/keyprice/?at=2018-09-12 = keys were $1.87
$1950.00 / $1.87 = 1042.78 = 1043 keys
$2250.00 September 13th
http://manicbot.me/keyprice/?at=2018-09-13 = keys were $1.87
$2250.00 / $1.87 = 1203.21 = 1203 keys
$2277.78 September 14th
http://manicbot.me/keyprice/?at=2018-09-14 = keys were $1.87
$2277.78 / $1.87 = 1218.06 = 1218 keys
$2222.22 September 17th
http://manicbot.me/keyprice/?at=2018-09-17 = keys were $1.85
$2222.22 / $1.85 = 1201.20 = 1201 keys
$2125.00 September 25th
http://manicbot.me/keyprice/?at=2018-09-25 = keys were $1.83
$2125.00 / $1.83 = 1161.20 = 1161 keys
$1910.04 September 26th
http://manicbot.me/keyprice/?at=2018-09-26 = keys were $1.83
$1910.04 / $1.83 = 1043.74 = 1044 keys
$2499.99 September 27th
http://manicbot.me/keyprice/?at=2018-09-27 = keys were $1.83
$2499.99 / $1.83 = 1366.11 = 1366 keys
$2499.99 September 30th
http://manicbot.me/keyprice/?at=2018-09-30 = keys were $1.84
$2499.99 / $1.84 = 1358.69 = 1359 keys
$1921.00 October 2nd
http://manicbot.me/keyprice/?at=2018-10-02 = keys were $1.80
$1921.00 / $1.80 = 1067.22 = 1067 keys
$2499.96 October 8th
https://marketplace.tf/items/1071;11;kt-3 = keys were $1.80
$2499.96 / $1.80 = 1388.87 = 1389 keys
$2493.00 October 15th
http://manicbot.me/keyprice/?at=2018-10-15 = keys were $1.77
$2493.00 / $1.77 = 1408.47 = 1409 keys
sales: 1399 / 1263 / 1117 / 1395 (x2) / 1127 / 1170 / 1452 (x2) / 1455 / 1043 / 1203 / 1218 / 1201 / 1161 / 1044 / 1366 / 1359 / 1067 / 1389 / 1409
taking: 1170, 1203, 1201, 1161
Real trades
sold for a bunch of shit
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198037248506#!/compare/1539216000/1539302400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198424469290#!/compare/1539216000/1539302400
seems low
excluding
1126 pure
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198192602363#!/compare/1537401600/1537488000 - this shows 1217...
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198346040278#!/compare/1537056000/1537488000 - this shows 416...
confirmation on pure: https://imgur.com/a/XQC5KRf
taking 1126 keys
1190 pure
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198192602363#!/compare/1538870400/1538956800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198011695067#!/compare/1538352000/1538956800 - dunno what this is, but it's definitely a 1190 pure sale
taking 1190 keys
1043 pure
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198197108363#!/compare/1537056000/1537142400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198342161127#!/compare/1536969600/1537056000
seems low
excluding
sold for a bunch of shit
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198134575280#!/compare/1532390400/1532476800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198139171368#!/compare/1532390400/1532476800
no mini on it's a secret to everybody greased lightning
excluding
untrace
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198139171368#!/compare/1533340800/1533427200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198009309781#!/compare/1533340800/1533427200
excluding
~1190 pure
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198009309781#!/compare/1536883200/1536969600 - dunno what this is, but it's definitely a 1190 pure sale
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198202477376#!/compare/1536883200/1536969600
taking 1190 keys
untrace
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198202477376#!/compare/1538438400/1538784000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197984289499#!/compare/1538265600/1538697600 - dunno what this is lmao
excluding
sold for a burning flames head prize (in-date at 2000 keys) and a dead presidents blighted beak (?)
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198108628484#!/compare/1535414400/1535500800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198029176810#!/compare/1535414400/1535500800
used there
excluding
1150 pure
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198346256897#!/compare/1538697600/1538784000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198264117106#!/compare/1538352000/1538697600
taking 1150 keys
1195 pure
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198088292914#!/compare/1539734400/1539820800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198050052801#!/compare/1539734400/1539820800
takimg 1195 keys
sold for 1146 keys pure + a purple energy hard counter (17) + ~34 keys swerts
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198089455931#!/compare/1535846400/1536105600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198101581024#!/compare/1535846400/1536019200
1146 + 17 + 34 = 1197 keys
Minis:
purple energy hard counter mini
17 pure
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198382654640#!/compare/1538265600/1538352000 - keys match on a set of 17
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198846292642#!/compare/1538265600/1538352000 - dunno what this is, but it's definitely a 17 pure sale
taking 17 keys
1100 pure
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198139171368#!/compare/1532217600/1532304000 - dunno what this is, but it's definitely a 1100 pure sale
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197996306396#!/compare/1532217600/1532476800
taking 1100 keys
sold for a bunch of shit
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198139171368#!/compare/1532822400/1532908800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198071805624#!/compare/1532822400/1532908800
seems MAD high
no proof of b/o
excluding
this was used there but what the fuck is this sale
sold ALONG WITH 150 PURE for a hellfire HWNN...
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198196650083#!/compare/1535673600/1535760000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197969363424#!/compare/1530230400/1530489600 - dunnno what this is, but it's definitely the hellfire HWNN sale
used there, and this is super dumb
excluding
1107 pure + ~21 key sweets
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198049884052#!/compare/1532995200/1533081600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198055102854#!/compare/1532995200/1533081600
1107 + 21 = 1128 keys
1130 pure + a purple energy bloke's bucket hat (27) and some ref and scrap
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198073823378#!/compare/1532044800/1532217600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198413496095#!/compare/1532044800/1532131200 - dunno what this is, but it's definitely a 1130 + bloke's sale
1130 + 27 + ? = ~1157 = 1157 keys
Minis:
purple energy bloke's bucket hat
https://marketplace.tf/items/181;5;u10
$50.00 marketplace.tf
http://manicbot.me/keyprice/?at=2018-09-16 = keys were $1.85
$50.00 / $1.85 = 27.03 = 27 keys
untrace
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198073823378#!/compare/1532217600/1532390400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198015330923#!/compare/1532044800/1532390400
excluding
sold along with a vivid plasma noh mercy for a scorching flames noh mercy
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198202477376#!/compare/1532563200/1532736000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198015330923#!/compare/1532649600/1532736000
used there
excluding
sold for a bunch of shit
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198202477376#!/compare/1536624000/1536710400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198013245606#!/compare/1536624000/1536710400
seems MAD high
excluding
untrace
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198342161127#!/compare/1536537600/1536883200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198013245606#!/compare/1536624000/1537142400
excluding
sold for some shit
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198114402400#!/compare/1538006400/1538092800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198255610068#!/compare/1538006400/1538092800 - dunno what this is, but it's definitely the item sale
seems low
excluding
sold for some shit
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198106897791#!/compare/1537401600/1537488000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198218497692#!/compare/1537401600/1537488000 - histories dont match on some hats that would give the sale value
seems low and weird
excluding
sold for a bunch of shit
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198218497692#!/compare/1538870400/1538956800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198202477376#!/compare/1538870400/1538956800
seems MAD high
excluding
sales: excluding / 1126 / 1190 / 1043 / excluding / excluding / 1190 / excluding / excluding / 1150 / 1195 / 1197 / 1100 / excluding / excluding / 1128 / 1157 / excluding / excluding / excluding / excluding / excluding / excluding / excluding
taking: 1190, 1190, 1150, 1195, 1197, 1157 + marketplace.tf sales at 1170, 1203, 1201, 1161
sellers: 1200 (8 days), 1200 (12 days), 1299 (3 days), 1688 (8 months lmao)
buyers: 1171 (10 hours, 1166 (1 day), 1165 (1 day), 1120 (5 days)
with only 1 sale at 1150, im taking 1170 - 1203
rounding to 1170-1200!
thanks!
This is such a big and massive posting - many respect to the work you have put into making this pricesuggestion. Really, much respect. :)
All this work to have quickbuyers raise
Eh... only 2.5 hours. I have 85% of the proof done already. I'm gonna have to sift out old sales then update with all the new ones. Dunno what mods think, but waiting for their response before I do anything with this.
Seems good upvote!
DedPolitex's buy order has since dropped to 1167
So his old buy order shouldn't be a problem here.
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198088292914#!/compare/NaN/1539820800 sold mine for 1200 pure (made a sick 5 keys profit!)
buy orders seem to have gone back to above 1170, now there's 2
Just bought another one for 1195 pure
I think anything below 1190 is low at this point, I offered 1190 to three different pan owners this week and they all declined instantly (one of them even declined 1195).
Just sold that pan for 2400 on marketplace in under a day
$2400.00 / $1.80 = 1333.33 = 1333 keys
high
Can you really call it high if it sold in under a day though ?
unsolds under 1300. 1299 for 7 days, doubt it'll move at all. 1200 for 15 hours.
Looking at that buy order at 1189 i think 1190-1300 might be the way to go.
October 8th key price link messed up.
here's the real one
http://manicbot.me/keyprice/?at=2018-10-08
Three buyers above 1170
This is a good representation of the past few weeks of pan market. The current trend might be to go even higher, but until we have enough data points to back that up this will have to do.