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~630 keys
scorch
Unusual Killer Exclusive Scorching Flames
220 votes up
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https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198091502579#!/compare/1578441600/1578528000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197988866740#!/compare/1578268800/1578528000

50 keys +


Duped Sunbeams Le Party Phantom - Later sold Jan 18 on MP $230 = 129 keys https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/337;5;u17

Vivid Plasma Fancy Fedora - has no minis

Sunbeams Hustler's Hallmark - later sold on Jan 14 MP $119.99 = 68 keys https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/146;5;u17

Sunbeams Burning Question - later sold on Jan 16 MP $119.99 = 67 keys https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/146;5;u17

Sunbeams Millenial Mercenary - 110 keys https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5e83d994b5a6ee173e3a15ec

Scorching Grenadier's Softcap - 59 keys https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5e83db380275c402ec4558cb

Green Energy Aviator Assassin - has no minis

Purple Energy Dark Falkirk Helm - later sold on Jan 19 MP $99.99 = 56 keys https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30357;5;u10


https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4OVEQZPW 600 key buyout


Would cap at the buyout once the Fedora and Aviator sell, gets to 593 using buyers on those two


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https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198271892201#!/compare/1581811200/1581897600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198074924284#!/compare/1581811200/1581897600

Better used on the Demonflame Brown Bomber


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https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198074924284#!/compare/1581897600/1581984000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198065349229#!/compare/1581724800/1581984000

27 keys + Misty Skull Brown Bomber (350 keys)


https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5e00c95c1e975a3e0f337545


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https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198089253101#!/compare/1578528000/1578614400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198410407173#!/compare/1578528000/1578614400

Better used on the Ghosts Noh Mercy


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https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198410407173#!/compare/1579046400/1579132800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198006544512#!/compare/1579046400/1579132800

280 keys


50 keys matches and 230 keys matches where the Bonzo Billycock was bought here

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198035780190#!/compare/1579046400/1579132800


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https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198040280241#!/compare/1585526400/1585612800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198059701300#!/compare/1585526400/1585612800

Bulk


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https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198006544512#!/compare/1582243200/1582329600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198059701300#!/compare/1582329600/1582416000

Bulk


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https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198089253101#!/compare/1578355200/1578441600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198205939253#!/compare/1578182400/1578441600

Untraceable but


https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198205939253#!/compare/1578182400/1578441600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198156255538#!/compare/1578355200/1578441600

Sold for 275 keys in the same day (near id 8407678275 in 2nd compare link and then the 1st one)


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https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198156255538#!/compare/1582156800/1582243200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198070223789#!/compare/1580947200/1582243200

Duped Sulph Team Captain, Sunbeams Salty Dog, ~166 keys in strange/sweets


https://bot.tf/stats/listings/Y35K9LD1 495 key buyout, same time as other 450 key buyouts


Sunbeams Salty Dog - 88 keys https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5e83dfdaf94c462f1c5e041f


Sulph TC later sold for:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198003231859#!/compare/1583712000/1584144000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198156255538#!/compare/1583971200/1584144000

Scorching Patriot Peak + Clairvoyance Universal Translator + Sunbeams Head Hedge


The Translator + Head Hedge are about 46 in buy orders

Scorching Peak has sales at 200+ https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30743;5;u14


https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198258728302#!/compare/1583452800/1583712000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198078559370#!/compare/1583625600/1583971200

170 scorching peak


It would cap at a 450 key buyout easily, even though the seller's was 495, if they offered this to the 450 key buyout, it would be capped at that anyway


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https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198062670452#!/compare/1579996800/1580083200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198071075968#!/compare/1579996800/1580169600

Green Energy Dancing Doe, Scorching Flames Deep Cover Operator, Galactic Gateway Defragmenting Hard Hat 17%, Spelled Summer Shades (no minis, taking buyers at 5)


Defragmenting is 202 keys https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5e83e1eb8dabf733ac66eaf9

DCO is 90 keys https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5e83e1eb8dabf733ac66eaf9

Green Energy Dancing Doe is 33.5 keys https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31045;5;u9


Sale = 330.5 keys


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Sales

275

280

330

367

450+ buyout cap

600+ buyout cap


Sellers:

https://gyazo.com/5080ddf698ff050ea96956a61914a888

419 and 450 rule out 450+

Buyers at 256


275 was a same day sale

280 is unconfirmed, i just kinda used super big brain to come to that conclusion


Going to go with 330-370 keys

    If this pass this will be first time in last decade for this hat to hit price point at which i would be happy to see it offered on my stuff. Also proof looks solid upvoting :)

      why? they killed the hat

      Offline suggestions and analysis is always on point. Unlike that Vincentius fellow who basically sticks around to drop prices on suggestions. Strong upvote!

        RIP Killer Exclusive

          Not sure if this effects anything, but easily a 500+ sale.


          Purple Confetti Crown of the Old Kingdom

          Scorching Flames Virtual Reality Headset

          Burning Flames Voodoo JuJu (Slight Return)

          Molten Mallard Horrific Headsplitter

          Scorching Flames Madame Dixie

          Cool Bamboo Brushed Scattergun (Field-Tested)

          Scorching Flames Coupe D'isaster

          Strange Neutron Star Toadstool Topper

          Non-Craftable Professional Killstreak Rocket Launcher Kit

          Showstopper Taunt: The Victory Lap

          Spooky Night Taunt: Runner's Rhythm

          Neutron Star Hot Dogger

          Spectral Swirl Taunt: The Box Trot

          Starstorm Insomnia Cranial Carcharodon

          Holy Grail Taunt: Pool Party

          Screaming Tiger Taunt: Luxury Lounge

          Roaring Rockets Taunt: The Schadenfreude

          Spectral Swirl Taunt: Bad Pipes

          '72 Taunt: Didgeridrongo

          Screaming Tiger Taunt: Square Dance

          Silver Cyclone Taunt: Scotsmann's Stagger

          Nether Void Taunt: Yeti Punch

          Showstopper Taunt: Soldier's Requiem


          Buyout on my KE was 750, so no cap? Just figured I'd post as the most current sale.

            Comparison link for this massive sale:

            https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197966756586#!/compare/1587772800/1587859200

            Just by looking at it, unless the old kingdom recieves a massive drop, this sale will likely fall around the 600-650 range, which would make it a high outlier.

            In order for this to not be a high outlier, the old kingdom, VRH and juju would all need to drop by a lot, which I find very unlikely.


            Something interesting that I also noticed, the marketplace sale at $760(~450 Keys using 1.69 value) had a B/O of 300, however that was only up for less than a day. It was previously listed at 350 as well, also for less than a day:

            https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/538;5;u14

            https://bot.tf/stats/listings/42902R55 300

            https://bot.tf/stats/listings/MGL53QD2 350

            I wouldn't use either B/O to cap on this instance, as it's not only unknown if it was listed for less, but due to the short amount of time they were up.


            With all these new sales, I think including 450 is justified now. 330-450 should be fine for this.