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Using sales from June onwards.
The Sale:
Sold for 4 keys + ~0.35 keys in metal?
Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198453530349#!/compare/1591833600/1591920000
Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197963299583#!/compare/1591920000/1592006400
https://backpack.tf/item/6253542819
https://bot.tf/stats/listings/MGLRJEDZ - was listed for 4 keys + 21.11 ref
Looks like the buyer sold a key for metal, then used the metal to buy the thing.
4.35 keys
Marketplace Sales:
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/1182;5;u3006
$9.55, June 5th
$9.54, June 5th
$6.50, June 10th
$7, June 11th
$11.88, June 21st
$10.89, July 1st
https://backpack.tf/item/6551805582 - Most likely June 5th, 10th & 21st
https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4KVLQGOE - No B/O for 21st, the other two were likely buy orders.
Couldn’t find any other histories.
http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-06-05&price=9.55 - $9.55 / $1.96 = 4.87 keys
http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-06-05&price=9.54 - $9.54 / $1.96 = 4.87 keys
http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-06-10&price=6.5 - $6.5 / $2.01 = 3.23 keys
http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-06-11&price=7 - $7 / $2.03 = 3.45 keys
http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-06-21&price=11.88 - $11.88 / $1.99 = 5.97 keys
http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-07-01&price=10.89 - $10.89 / $2.02 = 5.39 keys
After rounding, we have:
3.25 keys
3.45 keys
4.85 keys (2x)
5.4 keys
5.95 keys
[b]Other Sales:
https://backpack.tf/item/7684276293 (#1 & #2)
https://backpack.tf/item/6551805582 (#3)
https://backpack.tf/item/6315200587 (#4-6)
https://backpack.tf/item/6253542819 (#7 & #8)
https://backpack.tf/item/6252802447 (#9)
https://backpack.tf/item/7199752216 - some site bot
https://backpack.tf/item/6258021714 - same site bot
https://backpack.tf/item/6254231918 - scrap
https://backpack.tf/item/6870731020 - scrap
https://backpack.tf/item/6863681650 - scrap
https://backpack.tf/item/6669484004 - wasn’t unusual at the time
https://backpack.tf/item/6284062697 - mannco
#1
SCM/Untraceable
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198880342250#!/compare/1592524800/1592697600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198087896691#!/compare/1592870400/1592956800
Can’t determine exactly how much it sold for, way too many sales around this time.
#2
Untraceable
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198087896691#!/compare/1592956800/1593475200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198097271466#!/compare/1593388800/1593561600
#3
Untraceable
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198088459414#!/compare/1592697600/1592784000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199018021198#!/compare/1593129600/1593216000
Missing info in the history. Buyer is not a bot.tf bot either.
#4
Untraceable
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198057317414#!/compare/1591401600/1591488000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198362891322#!/compare/1590192000/1591401600
#5
Untraceable, probably gambled
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198362891322#!/compare/1591401600/1594512000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198219918225#!/compare/1591401600/1591488000
Gambled afterwards.
#6
Untraceable
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198256588287#!/compare/1589932800/1591660800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199018021198#!/compare/1591574400/1591660800
#7
Sold for 3 keys?
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199008475806#!/compare/1591488000/1591660800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198453530349#!/compare/1591401600/1591488000
Most likely had some metal involved, and spent on buying more keys. Not a bot.tf bot.
#8
Untraceable
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197963299583#!/compare/1593302400/1594684800 - won’t update
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1594684800/1594857600
#9
Untraceable
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198368237096#!/compare/1592697600/1592870400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198453530349#!/compare/1592784000/1592870400
There’s also an untraceable history here due to the bot’s backpack not being updated
https://i.imgur.com/xFrUnO7.png - labelled as a 3 key + 45 ref purchase
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198358296372
Sellers/Buyers:
https://i.imgur.com/Xp08Y6T.png
https://backpack.tf/item/6252802447 - 5 keys
https://backpack.tf/item/6551805582 - 5 keys
https://backpack.tf/item/8979146540 - 5 keys
https://backpack.tf/item/9042121778 - 5 keys
https://backpack.tf/item/6782505705 - 8 keys
https://backpack.tf/item/6284062697 - 12 keys
Bot as high as ~3.8 keys, human as high as 4 keys.
Sales at:
3.25
3.45
4.35
4.85 (2x)
5.4
5.95
3.25 and 3.45 are way below buyers. Excluding them.
5.4 and 5.95 are quite a bit above sellers. Excluding them.
Average price of the non-outlier sales we have is below 5 keys, so we round to the nearest 0.05 keys here.
Taking 4.35-4.85.