Using sales from June onwards.

The Sale:

Sold for 4 keys + ~0.35 keys in metal?

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198453530349#!/compare/1591833600/1591920000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197963299583#!/compare/1591920000/1592006400

https://backpack.tf/item/6253542819

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/MGLRJEDZ - was listed for 4 keys + 21.11 ref

Looks like the buyer sold a key for metal, then used the metal to buy the thing.

4.35 keys

Marketplace Sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/1182;5;u3006

$9.55, June 5th

$9.54, June 5th

$6.50, June 10th

$7, June 11th

$11.88, June 21st

$10.89, July 1st

https://backpack.tf/item/6551805582 - Most likely June 5th, 10th & 21st

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4KVLQGOE - No B/O for 21st, the other two were likely buy orders.

Couldn’t find any other histories.

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-06-05&price=9.55 - $9.55 / $1.96 = 4.87 keys

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-06-05&price=9.54 - $9.54 / $1.96 = 4.87 keys

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-06-10&price=6.5 - $6.5 / $2.01 = 3.23 keys

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-06-11&price=7 - $7 / $2.03 = 3.45 keys

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-06-21&price=11.88 - $11.88 / $1.99 = 5.97 keys

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-07-01&price=10.89 - $10.89 / $2.02 = 5.39 keys

After rounding, we have:

4.85 keys (2x)

[b]Other Sales:

https://backpack.tf/item/7684276293 (#1 & #2)

https://backpack.tf/item/6551805582 (#3)

https://backpack.tf/item/6315200587 (#4-6)

https://backpack.tf/item/6253542819 (#7 & #8)

https://backpack.tf/item/6252802447 (#9)

https://backpack.tf/item/7199752216 - some site bot

https://backpack.tf/item/6258021714 - same site bot

https://backpack.tf/item/6254231918 - scrap

https://backpack.tf/item/6870731020 - scrap

https://backpack.tf/item/6863681650 - scrap

https://backpack.tf/item/6669484004 - wasn’t unusual at the time

https://backpack.tf/item/6284062697 - mannco

#1

SCM/Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198880342250#!/compare/1592524800/1592697600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198087896691#!/compare/1592870400/1592956800

Can’t determine exactly how much it sold for, way too many sales around this time.

#2

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198087896691#!/compare/1592956800/1593475200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198097271466#!/compare/1593388800/1593561600

#3

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198088459414#!/compare/1592697600/1592784000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199018021198#!/compare/1593129600/1593216000

Missing info in the history. Buyer is not a bot.tf bot either.

#4

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198057317414#!/compare/1591401600/1591488000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198362891322#!/compare/1590192000/1591401600

#5

Untraceable, probably gambled

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198362891322#!/compare/1591401600/1594512000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198219918225#!/compare/1591401600/1591488000

Gambled afterwards.

#6

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198256588287#!/compare/1589932800/1591660800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199018021198#!/compare/1591574400/1591660800

#7

Sold for 3 keys?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199008475806#!/compare/1591488000/1591660800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198453530349#!/compare/1591401600/1591488000

Most likely had some metal involved, and spent on buying more keys. Not a bot.tf bot.

#8

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197963299583#!/compare/1593302400/1594684800 - won’t update

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1594684800/1594857600

#9

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198368237096#!/compare/1592697600/1592870400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198453530349#!/compare/1592784000/1592870400

There’s also an untraceable history here due to the bot’s backpack not being updated

https://i.imgur.com/xFrUnO7.png - labelled as a 3 key + 45 ref purchase

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198358296372

Sellers/Buyers:

https://i.imgur.com/Xp08Y6T.png

https://backpack.tf/item/6252802447 - 5 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/6551805582 - 5 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/8979146540 - 5 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/9042121778 - 5 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/6782505705 - 8 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/6284062697 - 12 keys

Bot as high as ~3.8 keys, human as high as 4 keys.

Sales at:

3.25

3.45

4.35

4.85 (2x)

5.4

5.95

3.25 and 3.45 are way below buyers. Excluding them.

5.4 and 5.95 are quite a bit above sellers. Excluding them.

Average price of the non-outlier sales we have is below 5 keys, so we round to the nearest 0.05 keys here.

Taking 4.35-4.85.