Sale 1:

Sold with 21.11 ref for 3 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1717286400/1717372800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198872312535#!/compare/1717286400/1717372800

https://backpack.tf/item/6500578876

= 2.75 keys

Sale 2:

Bought from Scrap.tf for 2 keys + 22.33 ref

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135388328#!/compare/1715731200/1715817600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198048750002#!/compare/1715472000/1716595200

https://backpack.tf/item/9715157466

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Mann%20Co.%20Supply%20Crate%20Key&at=2024-05-17T02:36:09.169Z - keys were ~74 ref at the time

= 2.3 keys

Sale 3:

Sold to a bot for 2 keys + 11.77 ref

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198852487970#!/compare/1716508800/1716595200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199132184792#!/compare/1716508800/1716595200

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Screaming%20Tiger%20Taunt:%20Yeti%20Punch&at=2024-05-26T02:31:24.240Z - labelled as 2 keys + 11.88 ref, close enough

https://backpack.tf/item/14017895130

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Mann%20Co.%20Supply%20Crate%20Key&at=2024-05-26T02:36:09.169Z - keys were ~78 ref at the time

= 2.15 keys

Sale 4:

Sold to STN for 2 keys + 11.11 ref

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199521837458#!/compare/1716336000/1716422400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1716336000/1716422400

https://backpack.tf/item/6500578876

= 2.15 keys

Other Sales:

#1

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199161265338#!/compare/1710028800/1710115200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199057187154#!/compare/1709942400/1710028800

https://backpack.tf/item/13184347834

Untraceable

#2

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199057187154#!/compare/1712188800/1712275200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199187277505#!/compare/1712361600/1713484800

https://backpack.tf/item/13184347834

Untraceable

#3

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199187277505#!/compare/1713484800/1715126400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199057187154#!/compare/1713484800/1713571200

https://backpack.tf/item/13184347834

Untraceable

#4

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198837007652#!/compare/1710460800/1710633600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199564942025#!/compare/1710460800/1710547200

https://backpack.tf/item/9488924246

Untraceable

#5

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199564942025#!/compare/1711843200/1711929600 - Near ID: 14331283957

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199069442401#!/compare/1711843200/1711929600

https://backpack.tf/item/9488924246

2 keys + 17.11 ref match. Not convinced this is all that was involved, but if it is, it’s lower than current buyers.

#6

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198216241727#!/compare/1711411200/1711497600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198166908820#!/compare/1711497600/1711584000

https://backpack.tf/item/7427906584

Untraceable, 2 keys match

#7

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199092398021#!/compare/1712707200/1715126400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198979238937#!/compare/1713657600/1714262400

https://backpack.tf/item/6254231918

SCM

#8

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1710115200/1710201600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199139298426#!/compare/1710115200/1710201600

https://backpack.tf/item/6253075424

Bulk

#9

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199139298426#!/compare/1710201600/1710288000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198273331466#!/compare/1710201600/1710288000

https://backpack.tf/item/6253075424

Bulk for Runic Imprisonment Bad Pipes, or gambled. Gambled afterwards.

#10

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198872312535#!/compare/1717372800/1717632000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199135952616#!/compare/1717372800/1717459200

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Screaming%20Tiger%20Taunt:%20Yeti%20Punch&at=2024-06-05T03:01:46.297Z - labelled as 2 keys + 13.11 ref

https://backpack.tf/item/6500578876

https://backpack.tf/item/12480699519 - account transfer

https://backpack.tf/item/11114406812 - mannco

https://backpack.tf/item/6252729008 - mannco

https://backpack.tf/item/14399115328 - all untraceable, backpacks only recently scanned

Marketplace Sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/1182;5;u3006

$7.32, April 1st

$4.72, May 14th

$4.99, May 26th, 27th & June 4th

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6 - keys were:

$1.67, April 1st

$1.65, May 14th

$1.67, May 26th, 27th, & June 4th

7.32/1.67 = 4.383, rounds to 4.4 keys

4.72/1.65 = 2.861, rounds to 2.85 keys

4.99/1.67 = 2.988, rounds to 3 keys (3x)

Sellers:

https://imgur.com/a/iQy3yJa

https://backpack.tf/item/14017895130 - ~2.9 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/12537815976 - ~2.9 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/6274260488 - 3 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/6269117872 - 3 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/6285997528 - 3 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/9488924246 - marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/12895146301 - marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/6372528191 - marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/6500578876 - marketplace

Sales at:

2.15 (2x)

2.3

2.85 (marketplace)

3 (3x, marketplace)

4.4 (marketplace)

4.4 is an obvious outlier, excluding 4.4

2.15 is a common trading point, given the confirmed sales at 2.15, the unconfirmed one in #10, and an additional one that I couldn’t find in the history for.

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Screaming%20Tiger%20Taunt:%20Yeti%20Punch&at=2024-05-10T03:01:46.297Z

However, if I were to try include it, it would almost certainly be a fair bit below buyers in a couple days, so I’m going to future-proof this suggestion and exclude 2.15, but keep 2.3 instead.

Couple sellers at ~2.9 keys, one has owned the item for over 3 months. Excluding 3.

Taking 2.3-2.85.