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Using last 2 months.
Sale 1:
Sold for 3 keys + 15 ref
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199139085248#!/compare/1699488000/1699574400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199059003709#!/compare/1698969600/1699574400
https://backpack.tf/item/8291817083
https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Screaming%20Tiger%20Taunt:%20Yeti%20Punch&at=2023-11-10T15:12:35.148Z - glad states 15.77 ref, miniscule difference here.
https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Mann%20Co.%20Supply%20Crate%20Key&at=2023-11-09T01:00:00.000Z - keys were selling for around 58-60 ref at the time. Taking 59 ref.
15/59 = ~.25
= ~3.25 keys
Sale 2:
Sold to a bot for 2 keys + 28 ref?
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198151746404#!/compare/1697932800/1698019200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199139085248#!/compare/1697932800/1698019200
https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Screaming%20Tiger%20Taunt:%20Yeti%20Punch&at=2023-10-24T15:12:35.148Z - confirmed here
https://backpack.tf/item/8291817083
The metal on the seller's end matches. The keys were probably dumped before being scanned in the inventory. Looks that way for all their items in the first compare too. Should be safe to confirm this is 2 keys + 28 ref.
https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Mann%20Co.%20Supply%20Crate%20Key&at=2023-10-23T15:14:57.817Z - keys were selling for around 57-59 ref at the time. Taking 58 ref.
28/58 = ~.48
= ~2.5 keys
Other Gladiator Sales:
https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Screaming%20Tiger%20Taunt:%20Yeti%20Punch&at=2023-11-21T15:45:35.644Z - 2 keys + 51.22 ref, ~20th November
https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Screaming%20Tiger%20Taunt:%20Yeti%20Punch&at=2023-11-02T15:45:35.644Z - 3 keys + 22 ref, ~1st November
Couldn't trace these sales. Scarce sales, not adding them to the range (though they'd either fit in or get excluded due to sellers anyways)
Other Sales:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199569139280#!/compare/1700956800/1701129600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198217636100#!/compare/1698451200/1701475200
https://backpack.tf/item/13795126467
Untraceable
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199245606699#!/compare/1701734400/1703030400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199111073161#!/compare/1701648000/1701734400
https://backpack.tf/item/13184347834
Bulk, probably for keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198359646361#!/compare/1698105600/1703030400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850121720#!/compare/1701820800/1701907200
https://backpack.tf/item/12895146301
Bulk
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198045674946#!/compare/1699142400/1699228800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199072654974#!/compare/1699142400/1699228800
https://backpack.tf/item/12844580068
Untraceable
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199072654974#!/compare/1699574400/1699660800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1700179200/1700265600
https://backpack.tf/item/12844580068
Untraceable
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198273894042#!/compare/1701388800/1701475200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199161916038#!/compare/1701388800/1701475200
https://backpack.tf/item/12480699519
Probably gambled, wasn't unusual prior.
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199061291714#!/compare/1701734400/1701820800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198876698605#!/compare/1701648000/1701820800
https://backpack.tf/item/12480699519
Untraceable
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198126679929#!/compare/1702339200/1702425600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1702339200/1702425600
https://backpack.tf/item/6912982905
Untraceable
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1702339200/1702425600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198355800026#!/compare/1702252800/1702425600
https://backpack.tf/item/6912982905
Untraceable, 1 key matches
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850121720#!/compare/1699488000/1699574400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198276283028#!/compare/1699488000/1699574400
https://backpack.tf/item/6372528191
Kinda untraceable, we can see 3 keys matching on the buyer's end, but it looks like the buyer sold a key for metal, then added metal to the trade. Can't confirm the amount of metal, so I can't use the sale.
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198243238038#!/compare/1701302400/1701388800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198890990852#!/compare/1701302400/1701388800
https://backpack.tf/item/6298684490
Untraceable. Half a key of metal appears on the seller's end, but snapshot history suggests it was bought for 2 keys + almost a key in metal.
https://next.backpack.tf/classifieds/snapshots/Screaming%20Tiger%20Taunt:%20Yeti%20Punch/65689c04e47fd6fb0d0591ec
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198983856237#!/compare/1702252800/1702339200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199072654974#!/compare/1702252800/1702339200
https://backpack.tf/item/6274260488
Untraceable
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199072654974#!/compare/1702857600/1702944000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197999873164#!/compare/1702857600/1702944000
https://backpack.tf/item/6274260488
Untraceable
https://backpack.tf/item/12461453884 - wasn't unusual until after trades
https://backpack.tf/item/6253532010 - gambled
https://backpack.tf/item/6252729008 - bots
Marketplace Sales:
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/1182;5;u3006
$7.99, October 22nd
$9.99, November 18th
Both sales are gonna be well over 4 keys, excluding them, as they conflict with current sellers.
Sellers/Buyers:
https://imgur.com/a/BkvJKZa
https://backpack.tf/item/12844580068 - ~3.1 keys
https://backpack.tf/item/7427906584 - ~3.28 keys
https://backpack.tf/item/6274260488 - ~3.28 keys
https://backpack.tf/item/6298684490 - ~3.28 keys
https://backpack.tf/item/12461453884 - 4 keys
Sales at:
2.5
3.25
Only 1 seller below 3.25, not excluding 3.25.
2.5 went to a bot, though buyers have dropped pretty harshly since then, and given the high end is higher than one of the sellers, it would be a good idea to include it in the range.
Taking 2.5-3.25.
New trades:
https://backpack.tf/item/6270770301
https://backpack.tf/profiles/765611990046519390 (backpack won't update)
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199570980864#!/compare/1701561600/1703116800
Looks like bulk
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199570980864#!/compare/1703116800/1703203200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199215219582#!/compare/1702944000/1703116800
Untraceable, probably a backpack buy or something.
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199215219582#!/compare/1702944000/1703116800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199564942025#!/compare/1703116800/1703203200
Untraceable bot dump
Sold for Selfless Sensation Spent Well Spirits + 3 ToD Tickets
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850121720#!/compare/1703548800/1703635200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199141489920#!/compare/1703548800/1703635200
https://backpack.tf/item/12895146301
https://imgur.com/a/Dh6ebAH - buyers on the taunt for ~2.1 keys.
I don't know how the quicksell.store bots work, I'm going to assume they'd have the same price for these items between their bots, in which case, it should be safe to assume their B/O was ~3.1 keys, similar to the first seller listed in this suggestion. With buyers on the taunt for ~2.1, and 3 ToD tickets easily being over a key, this sale should cap at that B/O.
No other sales to report.
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850178158#!/compare/1704240000/1704326400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199203523824#!/compare/1696723200/1704931200
https://backpack.tf/item/10166640739
Bulky item sale on both ends.
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199112294864#!/compare/1705190400/1705276800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199125348079#!/compare/1705104000/1705190400
https://backpack.tf/item/6304704799
Untraceable.
https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Screaming%20Tiger%20Taunt:%20Yeti%20Punch&at=2024-01-15T15:07:10.022Z - labelled as 3 keys + 5 ref