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For the sake of being thorough, taking last 2 months
Mini for Orb Fire Rotation
Item 1
https://backpack.tf/item/8802216186
Sale 1
Scammed, fake bitskins bot
Sale 2
Dumped to bot, excluding sale
Sale 3
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198358296372#!/compare/1594512000/1594598400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199011488010#!/compare/1594512000/1594598400
Sold to another bot I believe, for a trading site, or potentially gambling site, I'm still not sure
Point is, untrace
Sale 4
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199011488010#!/compare/1594512000/1594598400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198841279602#!/compare/1594339200/1594598400
Sold to bot
Sale 5
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198841279602#!/compare/1596067200/1596153600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198126695508#!/compare/1595980800/1596153600
3 keys match
Sale 6
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198126695508#!/compare/1595980800/1596153600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198453530349#!/compare/1596067200/1596153600
Untrace
Item 2
https://backpack.tf/item/8246446321
Sale 7
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198164896554#!/compare/1591747200/1592870400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198047239660#!/compare/1594080000/1594339200
Bought off scm
Item 3
https://backpack.tf/item/8223902600
Sale 8
Either bought off mp then sold, or taken off then sold
Untrace
Item 4
https://backpack.tf/item/7573058418
Sale 9
Excluding swap.gg sales
Item 5
https://backpack.tf/item/7447798372
Sale 10
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198273528272#!/compare/1593388800/1594339200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198873140319#!/compare/1593302400/1593388800
1 rec matches
Sale 11
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198873140319#!/compare/1594252800/1594339200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198866348414#!/compare/1594166400/1594252800
Untrace
Sale 12
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198866348414#!/compare/1594512000/1594598400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198119169573#!/compare/1594425600/1594598400
It wasn't unusualified here
Sale 13
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198119169573#!/compare/1594598400/1594684800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198059874094#!/compare/1594598400/1594684800
Bulk for Ofire Rotation, using there
Sale 14
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198059874094#!/compare/1594684800/1594944000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198112694132#!/compare/1594598400/1594684800
Untrace
Sale 15
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198112694132#!/compare/1594684800/1596758400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198201660341#!/compare/1593216000/1594684800
Untrace
Sale 16
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198201660341#!/compare/1594684800/1596758400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199060200511#!/compare/1594598400/1596585600
Untrace
Item 5
https://backpack.tf/item/7092375999
Sale 17
Bought off mannco.trade, excluding
Item 6
https://backpack.tf/item/6833762638
Sale 18
Bought off tradeit, excluding
Sale 19
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198358296372#!/compare/1594252800/1594339200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198841279602#!/compare/1594252800/1594339200
Sold to bot, untrace
Sale 20
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198841279602#!/compare/1594598400/1594684800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198276521556#!/compare/1594512000/1594684800
Untrace
Sale 21
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198276521556#!/compare/1594684800/1596672000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198453530349#!/compare/1594598400/1594684800
Untrace, sold to bot
Sale 22
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198453530349#!/compare/1594771200/1595203200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199008475806#!/compare/1594684800/1596585600
Uh, moved to owner
Sale 23
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199008475806#!/compare/1594684800/1596585600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198448501306#!/compare/1596585600/1596672000
Untrace
Item 6
https://backpack.tf/item/6732917699
Sale 24
Excluding scrap sales
Item 7
https://backpack.tf/item/5375755195
Sale 25
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198453530349#!/compare/1593302400/1593388800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198390674873#!/compare/1592611200/1594425600
2 keys match
Item 8
https://backpack.tf/item/4974286211
Sale 26
Excluding sales to and from qs.store
Marketplace sales
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30762;5;u3006
Taking last 2 months
From 07/06/20 onwards
June 13th - $7.75 / $2.00 = 3.88 keys
June 28th - $7.59 / $2.05 = 3.70 keys
July 1st - $7.59 / $2.02 = 3.76 keys
July 11th - $6.05 / $1.99 = 3.04 keys
July 16th - $7.72 / $1.98 = 3.90 keys
July 25th - $7.8 / $1.93 = 4.04 keys
July 31st - $8.49 / $1.92 = 4.42 keys
Sales
3, 2, 3.9, 3.7, 3.75, 3.05, 3.9, 4.05, 4.4
Sales but ordered
2, 3, 3.05, 3.7, 3.75, 3.9, 3.9, 4.05, 4.4
Current Listings
https://gyazo.com/502f65a6cddef53f5eb0ce8f0e25fe09
3 seller sat 3.53 keys
1 seller at 5 keys
Buyers at 3 keys
Going with 3 - 3.9 keys here
some more sales:
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30762;5;u3006
$5.5 / $1.79 = 3.07 keys
$6.67 / $1.79 = 3.73 keys <--- https://backpack.tf/item/7310066461
$6.60 / $1.79 = 3.69 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198280693486#!/compare/1597449600/1597536000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198280524116#!/compare/1597449600/1597536000
Sold for ~3.55 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198280524116#!/compare/1597449600/1597536000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198029074524#!/compare/1597449600/1597536000
Untrace / QS
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198118028178#!/compare/1597708800/1597795200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198045187173#!/compare/1597708800/1597795200"
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198420335027#!/compare/1554163200/1598227200
Untrace
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198841279602#!/compare/1597708800/1597795200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199006427115#!/compare/1597708800/1597795200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198067475387#!/compare/1597708800/1597795200
Untrace / can trace some keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198067475387#!/compare/1597881600/1597968000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198241109482#!/compare/1597881600/1597968000
Sold for ~5.35 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198066701092#!/compare/1597795200/1598140800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198204863571#!/compare/1598140800/1598313600
QS
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198070295449#!/compare/1598140800/1598400000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198267355651#!/compare/1598313600/1598400000
Bulk / use there
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198267355651#!/compare/1598313600/1598400000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198067741299#!/compare/1598313600/1598400000
Bulk / use there
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198067741299#!/compare/1598400000/1598486400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198018030216#!/compare/1598400000/1598486400
At least 2 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198448501306#!/compare/1597017600/1597104000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198126695508#!/compare/1597017600/1597104000
Sold for ~3.6 keys
buyers have also raised slightly to ~3.05 keys.
Total sales now @:
2, 3, 3.05, 3.07, 3.55, 3.6, 3.7, 3.7, 3.75, 3.75, 3.9, 3.9, 4.05, 4.4, 5.35 keys
I'm inclined to believe that low sales (3.07 and less) are outliers, and so are some of the higher sales.
Seems like the taunt can consistently sell for at or above sellers, and only sells for lower if it goes for buyers.
This would be better at 3.55 - 3.9 keys.