Price Suggestion
~2.15 keys
grail
Unusual Taunt: Spent Well Spirits Holy Grail
51 votes up
7 votes down
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This suggestion was closed by Vijf Kilo Boter (met voetjes).

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Comments

Challenge 21, Team 1! (winning team)


Done by: Hyperr


Item 1:

https://backpack.tf/item/6708578508

Sale 1:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199103818277#!/compare/1630368000/1630454400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198240217520#!/compare/1630454400/1630540800

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Holy%20Grail%20Taunt:%20Spent%20Well%20Spirits

Sold for 3 keys 23 ref

Item 2:

https://backpack.tf/item/9708059348

Sale 2:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198987670639#!/compare/1627948800/1628208000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198216241727#!/compare/1627948800/1628035200

Untrace

Item 3:

https://backpack.tf/item/7676852162

Sale 3:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198890990852#!/compare/1629936000/1630022400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198049370175#!/compare/1629504000/1630627200

Untrace

Item 4:

https://backpack.tf/item/6414060860

Sale 4:

https://backpack.tf/item/6414060860

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/1114;5;u3003

6 Sep: 7.79/1.81 = 4.30 keys

Item 5:

https://backpack.tf/item/6269888198

Sale 5:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061538510#!/compare/1628467200/1631318400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197963500354#!/compare/1630368000/1630454400

Untrace

Sale 6:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197963500354#!/compare/1630368000/1630454400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199110809353#!/compare/1630368000/1630454400

Untrace

Item 6:

https://backpack.tf/item/4845263701

Sale 7:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198198163249#!/compare/1630627200/1630713600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198841279602#!/compare/1630627200/1630713600

Untrace

Sale 8:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198331327749#!/compare/1630627200/1631318400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198198163249#!/compare/1630886400/1630972800

Untrace

Item 8:

https://backpack.tf/item/4476421652

Sale 9:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198983856237#!/compare/1630454400/1630540800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198097171432#!/compare/1630540800/1630627200

Untrace

Sale 10:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198044800742#!/compare/1626048000/1626134400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197966756586#!/compare/1626048000/1626134400

Untrace

Item 10:

https://backpack.tf/item/3985085457

No sale in past 2 months

Item 11:

https://backpack.tf/item/3143050700

Sale 11:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199106217370#!/compare/1629504000/1629590400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198160946056#!/compare/1629676800/1629763200

https://snapshots.tf/snapshot/61224dc687e3cfac424efb79

Untrace

Sale 12:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198160946056#!/compare/1629676800/1629849600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198101749972#!/compare/1629676800/1629763200

Untrace

Item 12:

https://backpack.tf/item/3117145267

Sale 13:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198257593711#!/compare/1627084800/1627171200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198119280826#!/compare/1626912000/1627430400

Untrace

Item 13:

https://backpack.tf/item/2883959860

Sale 14:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/1114;5;u3003

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198086071842#!/compare/1630195200/1630281600

30 Aug: 7.79/1.81= 4.30 keys

Item 14:

https://backpack.tf/item/2719756102

Sale 15

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199124175531#!/compare/1626048000/1626134400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198160276759#!/compare/1625788800/1627171200

Untrace

Item 15

https://backpack.tf/item/2741470746

Sale 16:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198101590387#!/compare/1566950400/1567036800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199107865875#!/compare/1630108800/1630195200

Untrace

Item 16:

https://backpack.tf/item/2762135294

Sale 17:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199126443664#!/compare/1624665600/1630022400

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/1114;5;u3003

18 Aug: 7.79/1.81= 4.30 keys

Item 17:

https://backpack.tf/item/3065047709

Sale 18:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198238978676#!/compare/1629072000/1629158400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199078770300#!/compare/1628985600/1629072000

Untrace

Sale 19:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198225717852#!/compare/1630540800/1630627200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198278210506#!/compare/1630627200/1631318400

Untrace

Sale 20:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198278210506#!/compare/1630627200/1631318400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1631232000/1631318400

https://stntrading.eu/item/tf2/Unusual+Holy+Grail+Taunt%3A+Spent+Well+Spirits

Sold to STN buy order, excluding

Sale on mp.tf

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/1114;5;u3003

Aug 22: 7.79/1.81= 4.30 keys

Sales: 3.4, 4.30, 4.30, 4.30

Classies: https://imgur.com/a/90eTVyw

Taking 3.4 keys flat

You are putting too much weight on one snapshot of buyers and sellers for this suggestion - you have 3 sales at one value, all of which would be outliers, opposed to one sale which as only one deviates from the rest, and there is no rationale justifying that decision other than one snapshot of the classifieds at the moment of posting. For uncommon items, this may suffice, but for something as common as this taunt, it should not.


The irony here is that the market as it really was at the time may even have been worse than the one snapshot implies, but also that there should be many more sales here.

https://gladiator.tf/listings/6135e7d8bf46fefe41d5f45e Sep 6

https://gladiator.tf/listings/612c84e443af4d7a11587b66 Aug 30

https://gladiator.tf/listings/6121c07c785bd9eb99788114 Aug 22

https://gladiator.tf/listings/6119f5be600ecada5e1e16c1 Aug 16

The market at the time of these sales (the one on Aug 22 features one of your marketplace sellers (top one), by the way, so that one should be capped)


Incidentally, this means that it is not necessarily wrong that the marketplace sales here are outliers (or perhaps simply overvalued, judging by the buyout I found belonging to one of he sales), but it also means that there should be a wider array of data to work with here for which it seems a flat value likely should not suffice. For these suggestions, having an overview of the market at the time the sales happen is very important for decisions regarding outliers. Statistically, the data collected in your sales summary suggests 3.4 should be the outlier here, but the bigger picture says it is not. This is something we can find but something not everyone will be able to tell from seeing and reading the info provided, and as such it is something that would be useful to include in the suggestion, which you can reference in your decisionmaking/outlier rationale.


As it stands, some new data has popped up on glad.tf already, and in the current market, buyers and sellers have risen slightly, so it is probably best to revise this suggestion to more appropriately reflect the market during this time period.


As a final remark: I do want to commend the effort of sweeping through all histories; its a lot to go through and that is always appreciated. I do however want to urge you not to link histories with no sales - while sharing premium info on items involved in the sales used is unavoidable, it is best not to turn the suggestion into an item history free-for-all.

    Closing here on account of my earlier comment.