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Challenge 21, Team 1! (winning team)
Done by: Hyperr
Item 1:
https://backpack.tf/item/6708578508
Sale 1:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199103818277#!/compare/1630368000/1630454400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198240217520#!/compare/1630454400/1630540800
https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Holy%20Grail%20Taunt:%20Spent%20Well%20Spirits
Sold for 3 keys 23 ref
Item 2:
https://backpack.tf/item/9708059348
Sale 2:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198987670639#!/compare/1627948800/1628208000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198216241727#!/compare/1627948800/1628035200
Untrace
Item 3:
https://backpack.tf/item/7676852162
Sale 3:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198890990852#!/compare/1629936000/1630022400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198049370175#!/compare/1629504000/1630627200
Untrace
Item 4:
https://backpack.tf/item/6414060860
Sale 4:
https://backpack.tf/item/6414060860
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/1114;5;u3003
6 Sep: 7.79/1.81 = 4.30 keys
Item 5:
https://backpack.tf/item/6269888198
Sale 5:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061538510#!/compare/1628467200/1631318400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197963500354#!/compare/1630368000/1630454400
Untrace
Sale 6:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197963500354#!/compare/1630368000/1630454400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199110809353#!/compare/1630368000/1630454400
Untrace
Item 6:
https://backpack.tf/item/4845263701
Sale 7:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198198163249#!/compare/1630627200/1630713600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198841279602#!/compare/1630627200/1630713600
Untrace
Sale 8:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198331327749#!/compare/1630627200/1631318400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198198163249#!/compare/1630886400/1630972800
Untrace
Item 8:
https://backpack.tf/item/4476421652
Sale 9:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198983856237#!/compare/1630454400/1630540800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198097171432#!/compare/1630540800/1630627200
Untrace
Sale 10:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198044800742#!/compare/1626048000/1626134400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197966756586#!/compare/1626048000/1626134400
Untrace
Item 10:
https://backpack.tf/item/3985085457
No sale in past 2 months
Item 11:
https://backpack.tf/item/3143050700
Sale 11:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199106217370#!/compare/1629504000/1629590400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198160946056#!/compare/1629676800/1629763200
https://snapshots.tf/snapshot/61224dc687e3cfac424efb79
Untrace
Sale 12:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198160946056#!/compare/1629676800/1629849600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198101749972#!/compare/1629676800/1629763200
Untrace
Item 12:
https://backpack.tf/item/3117145267
Sale 13:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198257593711#!/compare/1627084800/1627171200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198119280826#!/compare/1626912000/1627430400
Untrace
Item 13:
https://backpack.tf/item/2883959860
Sale 14:
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/1114;5;u3003
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198086071842#!/compare/1630195200/1630281600
30 Aug: 7.79/1.81= 4.30 keys
Item 14:
https://backpack.tf/item/2719756102
Sale 15
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199124175531#!/compare/1626048000/1626134400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198160276759#!/compare/1625788800/1627171200
Untrace
Item 15
https://backpack.tf/item/2741470746
Sale 16:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198101590387#!/compare/1566950400/1567036800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199107865875#!/compare/1630108800/1630195200
Untrace
Item 16:
https://backpack.tf/item/2762135294
Sale 17:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199126443664#!/compare/1624665600/1630022400
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/1114;5;u3003
18 Aug: 7.79/1.81= 4.30 keys
Item 17:
https://backpack.tf/item/3065047709
Sale 18:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198238978676#!/compare/1629072000/1629158400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199078770300#!/compare/1628985600/1629072000
Untrace
Sale 19:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198225717852#!/compare/1630540800/1630627200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198278210506#!/compare/1630627200/1631318400
Untrace
Sale 20:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198278210506#!/compare/1630627200/1631318400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1631232000/1631318400
https://stntrading.eu/item/tf2/Unusual+Holy+Grail+Taunt%3A+Spent+Well+Spirits
Sold to STN buy order, excluding
Sale on mp.tf
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/1114;5;u3003
Aug 22: 7.79/1.81= 4.30 keys
Sales: 3.4, 4.30, 4.30, 4.30
Classies: https://imgur.com/a/90eTVyw
Taking 3.4 keys flat
There's another sale on glad.tf for ~3.25k: https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Holy%20Grail%20Taunt:%20Spent%20Well%20Spirits&at=2021-09-11T18:39:49.708Z
Also a new seller at 3.16, not sure how that changes things
You are putting too much weight on one snapshot of buyers and sellers for this suggestion - you have 3 sales at one value, all of which would be outliers, opposed to one sale which as only one deviates from the rest, and there is no rationale justifying that decision other than one snapshot of the classifieds at the moment of posting. For uncommon items, this may suffice, but for something as common as this taunt, it should not.
The irony here is that the market as it really was at the time may even have been worse than the one snapshot implies, but also that there should be many more sales here.
https://gladiator.tf/listings/6135e7d8bf46fefe41d5f45e Sep 6
https://gladiator.tf/listings/612c84e443af4d7a11587b66 Aug 30
https://gladiator.tf/listings/6121c07c785bd9eb99788114 Aug 22
https://gladiator.tf/listings/6119f5be600ecada5e1e16c1 Aug 16
The market at the time of these sales (the one on Aug 22 features one of your marketplace sellers (top one), by the way, so that one should be capped)
Incidentally, this means that it is not necessarily wrong that the marketplace sales here are outliers (or perhaps simply overvalued, judging by the buyout I found belonging to one of he sales), but it also means that there should be a wider array of data to work with here for which it seems a flat value likely should not suffice. For these suggestions, having an overview of the market at the time the sales happen is very important for decisions regarding outliers. Statistically, the data collected in your sales summary suggests 3.4 should be the outlier here, but the bigger picture says it is not. This is something we can find but something not everyone will be able to tell from seeing and reading the info provided, and as such it is something that would be useful to include in the suggestion, which you can reference in your decisionmaking/outlier rationale.
As it stands, some new data has popped up on glad.tf already, and in the current market, buyers and sellers have risen slightly, so it is probably best to revise this suggestion to more appropriately reflect the market during this time period.
As a final remark: I do want to commend the effort of sweeping through all histories; its a lot to go through and that is always appreciated. I do however want to urge you not to link histories with no sales - while sharing premium info on items involved in the sales used is unavoidable, it is best not to turn the suggestion into an item history free-for-all.
Closing here on account of my earlier comment.