Sale 1:

Sold for 15 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198421652838#!/compare/1701907200/1701993600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198453196046#!/compare/1701907200/1701993600

https://backpack.tf/item/6725912097

= 15 keys

Sale 2:

Sold for 13 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199101442624#!/compare/1699833600/1699920000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198077362247#!/compare/1667692800/1699920000

https://backpack.tf/item/12780865042

= 13 keys

Sale 3:

Sold to a bot for 10 keys + negligible metal

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135234107#!/compare/1698969600/1703203200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198421652838#!/compare/1700438400/1700524800

https://backpack.tf/item/6725912097

= 10 keys

Other Sales:

#1

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198453196046#!/compare/1701993600/1702080000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1701993600/1702080000

https://backpack.tf/item/6725912097

Untraceable bot dump. Worth noting this is a day after Sale 1 happened.

#2

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1702080000/1702166400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198411087075#!/compare/1702080000/1702166400

https://backpack.tf/item/6725912097

Untraceable

#3

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198244002396#!/compare/1698105600/1698192000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198829227536#!/compare/1698278400/1698364800

https://backpack.tf/item/5188693449

Untraceable. Went to the buyer's bot afterwards.

#4

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199186204895#!/compare/1699315200/1699401600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198392139075#!/compare/1698883200/1699401600

https://backpack.tf/item/5188693449

Untraceable

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Holy%20Grail%20Taunt:%20The%20Victory%20Lap&at=2023-11-08T15:14:03.759Z - Labelled as 13 keys + 25 ref. Would round down to 13, would fit in the range anyway.

The sales after this are so untraceable, you don't see them in compare links until it gets to the current owner (a gladiator bot).

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Holy%20Grail%20Taunt:%20The%20Victory%20Lap&at=2023-11-28T15:26:48.108Z

2 more gladiator.tf sales at ~10 keys, one from the bot mentioned above.

Marketplace Sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/1172;5;u3003

$34.15, November 17th

https://backpack.tf/item/7205282380

Unable to get a B/O.

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6 - keys were ~1.72 on November 17th.

34.15/1.72 = ~19.85

= 20 keys

Sellers:

https://imgur.com/a/0BGH4Lf

https://backpack.tf/item/5188693449 - 15 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/6725912097 - 15 keys

Sales at:

10

13

15

20

Going to exclude 10, even though there are potentially 3 purchases at 10 keys, due to the large amount of buyers at 10, which are a decent amount of metal higher now.

20 is an obvious outlier, as are most marketplace sales. Excluding 20.

The sale at 15 resold to a bot shortly after. Normally, we would ignore such sales to prevent unnecessary raises, but we're dropping the price here. We also have the unconfirmed sale at ~13.5 keys and the marketplace sale as weak support for a higher high-end. I will keep 15 in the range for now, but will drop it from the range if needed.

Taking 13-15.